AC Horsens v Sonderjyske prediction · Superliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AC HorsensDrawSonderjyske

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AC Horsens 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AC Horsens are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AC Horsens 40%, draw 25%, Sonderjyske 35%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on AC Horsens v SonderjyskeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

AC Horsens win40%

Draw25%

Sonderjyske win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueCASA Arena

RefereeJacob A Sundberg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AC Horsens

Sonderjyske

9Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Danish Superliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
11	Sonderjyske	11	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ac horsens winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make AC Horsens a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AC Horsens v Sonderjyske~~1.65 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~6 v 11

~~The market · AC Horsens win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AC Horsens win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Horsens win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Sonderjyske win	35%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	55%	+6
Both teams to score	64%	59%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	77%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	39%	34%	+5
AC Horsens or draw	65%	66%	−1
AC Horsens clean sheet	22%	–	–
Sonderjyske clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.2 5.5 4.9 2.5 1 6.0 11.2 7.9 4.0 2 5.7 8.5 6.4 3.3 3 3.2 4.7 3.6 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Horsens down, Sonderjyske across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,032 Superliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Horsens at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sonderjyske away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for AC Horsens, 1.53 for Sonderjyske. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SON 2–5 ACH · ACH 1–4 SON · SON 5–0 ACH · ACH 1–2 SON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 28 Aug

AC HORSENS

LWLDDD2–3 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 0–0

SONDERJYSKE

LLDWLW1–3 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	11	+14	25
2	FC Midtjylland	11	+10	25
3	Viborg	11	+8	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	11	+4	19
5	Brondby	12	+1	19
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
7	Odense	11	−5	13
8	Silkeborg	11	−4	11
9	Randers FC	12	−7	11
10	Aarhus	11	−3	9
11	Sonderjyske	11	−8	8
12	Lyngby	11	−9	8