AC Horsens v Randers FC prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

AC Horsens 0–0 Randers FC AC HORSENS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AC Horsens win~~38%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Horsens win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AC Horsens 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF AC Horsens v Randers FC
22′🟥 RED CARD · 22' Randers FC
23′Randers FC are down to ten from 22′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 36–29–35
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Adam Herdonsson · AC Horsens
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was AC Horsens win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME AC Horsens 0–0 Randers FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AC Horsens · On: Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan · Off: Kingsley Bimpong
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AC Horsens · On: Abdul Moro · Off: Adam Herdonsson
45′SECOND HALF AC Horsens 0–0 Randers FC
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Axel Henriksson · Randers FC
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Mike Themsen · Randers FC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Randers FC · On: Martin André Sjølstad · Off: Kasper Junker
52′PENALTY MISSED · 51' Mohamed Sankoh · Randers FC
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–37–31
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' AC Horsens win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
62′We said AC Horsens at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–49–25
66′We said AC Horsens at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' AC Horsens · On: Julius Madsen · Off: Jimi Tauriainen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Randers FC · On: Amady Camara · Off: Mohamed Sankoh
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Sabil Osman Hansen · Randers FC
73′We said AC Horsens at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' AC Horsens win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Randers FC · On: Oliver Jones · Off: Nikolas Langberg Dyhr
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Randers FC · On: Hector Lux · Off: Mike Themsen
79′We said AC Horsens at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AC Horsens · On: Yamirou Ouorou · Off: Ivan Milićević Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AC Horsens · On: Yamirou Ouorou · Off: Karlo Lusavec
84′We said AC Horsens at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' AC Horsens win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
91′We said AC Horsens at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME AC Horsens 0–0 Randers FC
FTAC Horsens 0–0 Randers FC · AC Horsens win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AC Horsens just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AC Horsens 38%, draw 26%, Randers FC 36%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on AC Horsens v Randers FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

AC Horsens win38%

Draw26%

Randers FC win36%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCASA Arena

RefereeMorten Krogh

Line-ups

AC Horsens

4-2-3-1

Randers FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AC Horsens

Randers FC

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	AC Horsens	10	−1	12
8	Randers FC	10	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AC Horsens

4-2-3-1

1 M. Delač

26 V. Pálsson

35 M. Kupijbida

28 A. Saine

7 I. Miličević

17 A. Herdonsson

20 K. Lusavec

41 Kingsley Bimpong

6 J. Bonde

19 Jimi Weikko Tauriainen

15 A. Justinussen

Coach · Niki Zimling

Substitutes

27 · Y. Ouorou

30 · S. Doua

12 · Diomande Valassina Solo

22 · J. Batigi

11 · K. Ehibhatiomhan

18 · J. Körkkö

14 · J. Madsen

16 · A. Moro

31 · A. Hoff

Randers FC

4-4-2

1 P. Izzo

24 S. Hansen

3 D. Høegh

27 N. Hopland

44 N. Dyhr

21 A. Henriksson

8 L. Pedersen

17 M. Greve

7 M. Themsen

30 M. Sankoh

77 K. Junker

Coach · R. Bertelsen

Substitutes

31 · F. Sommer

32 · J. Storch

10 · W. Caddy

36 · A. Camara

29 · S. Stuker

26 · H. Hoyrup

5 · O. Jones

11 · E. Mahmoud

15 · M. Sjølstad

Our number · ac horsens winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make AC Horsens a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AC Horsens v Randers FC~~1.51 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 8

~~The market · AC Horsens win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AC Horsens win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Horsens win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Randers FC win	36%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
AC Horsens or draw	64%	60%	+4
AC Horsens clean sheet	23%	–	–
Randers FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.1 6.7 5.6 2.8 1 6.8 11.9 8.1 4.0 2 5.8 8.3 6.1 3.0 3 3.0 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Horsens down, Randers FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,025 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Horsens at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Randers FC away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for AC Horsens, 1.47 for Randers FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 17:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ACH 5–1 RAN · RAN 1–0 ACH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug

AC HORSENS

WLWLDD2–1 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3

RANDERS FC

LWWLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	10	+14	24
2	FC Midtjylland	10	+9	22
3	Viborg	10	+9	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
5	Brondby	10	0	16
6	AC Horsens	10	−1	12
7	Silkeborg	10	0	11
8	Randers FC	10	−5	10
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Aarhus	10	−3	8
11	Lyngby	10	−9	7
12	Sonderjyske	10	−12	5