Aarhus v Viborg prediction · Superliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AarhusDrawViborg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aarhus 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aarhus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aarhus 45%, draw 26%, Viborg 28%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Aarhus v ViborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aarhus win45%

Draw26%

Viborg win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueVejlby Stadion

RefereeMikkel Redder

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aarhus

Viborg

3Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Danish Superliga

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Viborg	11	+8	20
10	Aarhus	11	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aarhus winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Aarhus a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aarhus v Viborg~~1.62 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 20~~10 v 3

~~The market · Aarhus win~~40% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aarhus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aarhus win	45%	40%	+5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Viborg win	28%	34%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Aarhus or draw	72%	66%	+6
Aarhus clean sheet	29%	–	–
Viborg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.8 6.2 4.4 1 8.3 12.4 7.1 3.0 2 7.5 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.1 5.0 3.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aarhus down, Viborg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,032 Superliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aarhus at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Viborg away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Aarhus, 1.24 for Viborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIB 2–1 AAR · AAR 6–2 VIB · VIB 1–2 AAR · AAR 5–2 VIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 28 Aug

AARHUS

LDLDWD0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

VIBORG

WLDWWL3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	11	+14	25
2	FC Midtjylland	11	+10	25
3	Viborg	11	+8	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	11	+4	19
5	Brondby	12	+1	19
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
7	Odense	11	−5	13
8	Silkeborg	11	−4	11
9	Randers FC	12	−7	11
10	Aarhus	11	−3	9
11	Sonderjyske	11	−8	8
12	Lyngby	11	−9	8