Aarhus v Sonderjyske prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske AARHUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aarhus win~~55%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aarhus win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aarhus was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
7′Much as we predicted: Aarhus was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
10′Kristian Arnstad scores for Aarhus on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
11′We published Aarhus at 55%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
16′We published Aarhus at 55%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
17′15′ and it is 2–0: Janni Serra on the scoresheet for Aarhus. 2–0 · 92–6–2
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
24′Aarhus ahead on 24′ through Magnus Knudsen. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske · Magnus Knudsen
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 98% now
25′We published Aarhus at 55%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 98% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 98% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 98% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske · Janni Serra
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske · Frederik Tingager
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
39′Aarhus ahead on 38′ through Frederik Tingager. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Aarhus win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ismaïl Seydi · Sonderjyske
45′HALF-TIME Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sonderjyske · On: Stefan Velkov · Off: Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason
46′SECOND HALF Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Aarhus · On: Callum McCowatt · Off: Frederik Emmery
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sonderjyske · On: Teodor Berg Haltvik · Off: Sefer Emini
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sonderjyske · On: Jacob Christensen · Off: Mathias Olesen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aarhus · On: Eric Kahl · Off: Daniel Leo Gretarsson
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Aarhus · On: Stefen Tchamche · Off: Janni Serra
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sonderjyske · On: Andreas Oggesen · Off: Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Aarhus · On: James Bogere · Off: Tobias Bech Kristensen
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Aarhus · On: Jacob Andersen · Off: Rasmus Carstensen
FTFULL TIME Aarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske
FTAarhus 3–0 Sonderjyske · Aarhus win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Aarhus win55%

Draw23%

Sonderjyske win21%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueVejlby Stadion

RefereeMads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Line-ups

Aarhus

3-4-2-1

Sonderjyske

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aarhus

Sonderjyske

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aarhus

3-4-2-1

1 J. Hansen

14 T. Mølgaard

5 F. Tingager

3 D. Grétarsson

29 R. Carstensen

4 M. Knudsen

10 Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad

39 Frederik Emmery

31 T. Bech

23 M. Anderson

13 J. Serra

Coach · J. Poulsen

Substitutes

28 · J. Bogere

26 · J. Andersen

21 · M. Hedenstad Christiansen

19 · E. Kahl

18 · C. McCowatt

25 · C. Rösler

7 · M. Solbakken

27 · S. Tchamche

8 · S. Jørgensen

Sonderjyske

4-2-3-1

24 N. Shinton

3 A. Munksgaard

12 M. Soulas

25 B. Bjarnason

19 P. Kristensen

17 A. Hoeg

10 M. Olesen

31 I. Seydi

8 M. Haidara

7 S. Emini

11 O. De Rosario

Coach · Fatah Abdirahman

Substitutes

14 · T. Haltvik

30 · G. Wagner

1 · N. Flø

34 · Elias Hjort- Pedersen

9 · M. Hoppe

21 · S. Velkov

22 · A. Oggesen

26 · B. Tambedou

33 · J. Christensen

Our number · aarhus winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

55% The market61%

Us55%

~~Market~~61%

We make Aarhus a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aarhus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aarhus win	55%	61%	−6
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Sonderjyske win	21%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Aarhus or draw	79%	82%	−4
Aarhus clean sheet	32%	–	–
Sonderjyske clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.3 4.4 3.0 1 8.0 10.8 5.8 2.2 2 8.5 9.7 5.6 2.2 3 5.6 6.3 3.7 4 2.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aarhus down, Sonderjyske across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,024 Superliga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aarhus at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sonderjyske away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Aarhus, 1.15 for Sonderjyske. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AAR 2–1 SON · SON 1–1 AAR · AAR 2–3 SON · SON 1–1 AAR

Form · last six in Superliga

AARHUS

DLLDLD2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

SONDERJYSKE

LLLLDW2–3 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	10	+14	24
2	FC Midtjylland	10	+9	22
3	Viborg	10	+9	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
5	Brondby	10	0	16
6	AC Horsens	10	−1	12
7	Silkeborg	10	0	11
8	Randers FC	10	−5	10
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Lyngby	10	−9	7
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5