KoldingQ W v Køge W prediction · Kvindeliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

KoldingQ W 2–3 Køge W KØGE W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Køge W win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Køge W win at 75%.
2′1′: E. Oskarsdottir on the scoresheet for Køge W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–7–89
2′We published Køge W at 75%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–1 · 4–7–89
2′KICK-OFF KoldingQ W v Køge W
4′Much as we predicted: Køge W was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 1–1 · 11–15–74
4′KoldingQ W find the net on 4′. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–15–74
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' KoldingQ W 1–1 Køge W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Køge W win: 75% at kick-off, 74% now
27′SUBSTITUTION · 25' KoldingQ W · On: L. Colstup · Off: K. Maki Corrected
34′A goal for Køge W on 33′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–9–87
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' KoldingQ W 1–2 Køge W
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Køge W win: 75% at kick-off, 87% now
45′HALF-TIME KoldingQ W 1–2 Køge W
46′SECOND HALF KoldingQ W 1–2 Køge W
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Køge W · On: M. Wendicke · Off: R. Madsen
59′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–2 · 2–11–87
70′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Køge W · On: M. Uhre · Off: S. Jones
70′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Køge W · On: L. M. Hermann · Off: M. Schultz
71′Køge W score on 71′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
71′We published Køge W at 75%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
71′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Køge W · On: Z. Witek · Off: M. Gejl
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' KoldingQ W 1–3 Køge W
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Køge W win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
77′KoldingQ W find the net on 76′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–9–91
77′We published Køge W at 75%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–3 · 1–9–91
77′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–9–91
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' KoldingQ W 2–3 Køge W
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Køge W win: 75% at kick-off, 91% now
78′KoldingQ W pull one back on 77′ through A. Thierry. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–8–91
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' KoldingQ W · On: A. Kynde · Off: C. C. Byrnak
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' KoldingQ W · On: M. Kjaergaard · Off: S. Amby
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Køge W · On: C. Paulson · Off: S. Thygesen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 78' KoldingQ W · On: C. Christensen · Off: F. Ludvigsen
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Køge W win: 75% at kick-off, 95% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' KoldingQ W
FTFULL TIME KoldingQ W 2–3 Køge W
FTKoldingQ W 2–3 Køge W · Køge W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Køge W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KoldingQ W 11%, draw 14%, Køge W 75%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on KoldingQ W v Køge WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

KoldingQ W win11%

Draw14%

Køge W win75%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KoldingQ W

Køge W

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Kvindeliga

Last match: 20 Oct · Kvindeliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · køge w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Køge W a 75% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–3.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KoldingQ W v Køge W~~1.05 – 3.03

~~Form · last six in Kvindeliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 26~~7 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KoldingQ W win	11%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Køge W win	75%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
KoldingQ W or draw	25%	–	–
KoldingQ W clean sheet	6%	–	–
Køge W clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%

0123450 2.2 5.4 7.7 7.5 5.6 3.51 5.9 7.9 7.6 5.6 3.52 3.0 4.2 4.0 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KoldingQ W down, Køge W across0–5 goals a side shown (89.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 522 Kvindeliga matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kvindeliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KoldingQ W at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Køge W away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for KoldingQ W, 3.03 for Køge W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOG 4–1 KOL · KOG 3–1 KOL · KOL 0–2 KOG · KOG 6–1 KOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kvindeliga this season · since 5 Sept

KOLDINGQ W

LLWLWD0–5 · 1–3 · 6–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–0

KØGE W

LWWWDD4–6 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Køge W	11	+19	26
2	Nordsjælland W	11	+20	22
3	Brøndby W	11	+17	21
4	Fortuna Hjørring W	11	+11	18
5	Midtjylland W	11	+2	18
6	ASA Aarhus W	11	−5	16
7	KoldingQ W	11	−9	13
8	Odense Q W	11	−14	13
9	FC Copenhagen W	11	−22	6
10	AGF W	11	−19	3