Køge W v Brøndby W prediction · Kvindeliga

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 20:31

Køge W 1–1 Brøndby W KØGE W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Køge W win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Køge W win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Køge W was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Køge W v Brøndby W
17′A goal for Brøndby W on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–59
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Køge W 0–1 Brøndby W
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Køge W win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Brøndby W win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Køge W win 41%)
18′We said Køge W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
30′We said Køge W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Køge W win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Køge W 0–1 Brøndby W
46′SECOND HALF Køge W 0–1 Brøndby W
49′We said Køge W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Brøndby W
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Køge W · On: E. Oskarsdottir · Off: A. Oyama
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Brøndby W · On: H. Andersson · Off: M. Rasmussen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Brøndby W · On: J. Madsen · Off: E. Pedersen
64′Køge W score on 63′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–54–20
64′We said Køge W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–54–20
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Køge W 1–1 Brøndby W
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Køge W win: 43% at kick-off, 26% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Brøndby W win 74%)
66′62′: M. Schultz on the scoresheet for Køge W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–56–19
67′We said Køge W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–19
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Brøndby W · On: C. Buchberg · Off: R. Engesvik
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Brøndby W · On: H. Halldorsdottir · Off: T. Lindwall
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Køge W · On: L. M. Hermann · Off: Z. Witek
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Køge W win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Køge W · On: C. Paulson · Off: S. Thygesen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Brøndby W · On: K. Karlsen · Off: E. Pelkowski
90′We said Køge W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Køge W
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Køge W win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Køge W 1–1 Brøndby W
FTKøge W 1–1 Brøndby W · Køge W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Køge W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Køge W 43%, draw 26%, Brøndby W 31%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Køge W v Brøndby WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Køge W win43%

Draw26%

Brøndby W win31%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

Line-ups

Køge W

Brøndby W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Køge W

Brøndby W

16Days since last match17

Last match: 4 Oct · Kvindeliga

Last match: 3 Oct · Kvindeliga

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Køge W

Formation not confirmed

2 M. Uhre

3 M. Schultz

6 A. Oyama

7 K. Carusa

12 S. Thygesen

23 M. Gejl

28 S. Boye

32 E. Flick

33 M. Jereko

66 L. Kozal

88 Z. Witek

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Vingum

4 · Y. Sakabe

8 · M. Wendicke

13 · C. Paulson

22 · E. Oskarsdottir

24 · L. M. Hermann

27 · A. Termansen

Brøndby W

Formation not confirmed

3 M. Kovacs

6 A. Rodgers

8 M. Rasmussen

10 T. Lindwall

15 E. Nejmann

18 M. Brenn

19 R. Engesvik

23 E. Fink

26 E. Pelkowski

32 J. Tompkins

37 M. Bischoff

Coach · Bengt Saeternes

Substitutes

4 · J. Madsen

11 · C. Buchberg

12 · K. Karlsen

14 · H. Halldorsdottir

16 · H. Andersson

25 · E. Thygesen

40 · I. Andersen

Our number · køge w winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Køge W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Køge W v Brøndby W~~1.43 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Kvindeliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 20~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Køge W win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Køge W win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Brøndby W win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Køge W or draw	69%	–	–
Køge W clean sheet	32%	–	–
Brøndby W clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 8.7 5.1 2.0 1 10.7 12.3 7.0 2.7 2 7.7 8.5 4.9 3 3.7 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Køge W down, Brøndby W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 521 Kvindeliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kvindeliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.2% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Køge W at home: 3.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Brøndby W away: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Køge W, 1.15 for Brøndby W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRO 1–2 KOG · KOG 0–1 BRO · BRO 0–0 KOG · BRO 1–1 KOG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kvindeliga this season · since 29 Aug

KØGE W

WLWWWD2–0 · 4–6 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 2–2

BRØNDBY W

LWWWWW1–3 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Køge W	10	+19	25
2	Nordsjælland W	11	+20	22
3	Brøndby W	10	+17	20
4	Fortuna Hjørring W	11	+11	18
5	Midtjylland W	11	+2	18
6	ASA Aarhus W	11	−5	16
7	KoldingQ W	11	−9	13
8	Odense Q W	11	−14	13
9	FC Copenhagen W	11	−22	6
10	AGF W	11	−19	3