AGF W v ASA Aarhus W prediction · Kvindeliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

AGF W 1–3 ASA Aarhus W AGF W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AGF W win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.608

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AGF W win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: AGF W 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
2′KICK-OFF AGF W v ASA Aarhus W
4′A goal for ASA Aarhus W on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' AGF W 0–1 ASA Aarhus W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' AGF W win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' ASA Aarhus W win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was AGF W win 17%)
5′We said AGF W at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–21–62
19′AGF W score on 19′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–29–35
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' AGF W 1–1 ASA Aarhus W
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' AGF W win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
32′ASA Aarhus W find the net on 31′. 1–2. 1–2 · 12–22–66
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' AGF W 1–2 ASA Aarhus W
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' AGF W win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
33′We said AGF W at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–22–66
33′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 12–22–66
44′We said AGF W at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–69
45′HALF-TIME AGF W 1–2 ASA Aarhus W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AGF W · On: S. Jorgensen · Off: L. Guldbjerg
47′SECOND HALF AGF W 1–2 ASA Aarhus W
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' AGF W win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
54′A goal for ASA Aarhus W on 54′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–6–93
54′We said AGF W at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–6–93
54′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–6–93
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' AGF W 1–3 ASA Aarhus W
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AGF W · On: D. Jorgensen · Off: S. Lundberg
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AGF W · On: L. Aarhus · Off: M. Braithwaite
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' ASA Aarhus W · On: N. Schroder · Off: T. Hymoller
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ASA Aarhus W · On: L. Sorensen · Off: I. Thomsen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ASA Aarhus W · On: S. Jusjong · Off: I. Eriksen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AGF W · On: A. Klausen · Off: S. Andersen
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' AGF W
89′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AGF W · On: C. Harslof · Off: M. Lerche
FTFULL TIME AGF W 1–3 ASA Aarhus W
FTAGF W 1–3 ASA Aarhus W · AGF W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AGF W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AGF W 38%, draw 25%, ASA Aarhus W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on AGF W v ASA Aarhus WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AGF W win38%

Draw25%

ASA Aarhus W win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

Line-ups

AGF W

ASA Aarhus W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AGF W

ASA Aarhus W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Kvindeliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	ASA Aarhus W	10	−7	13
10	AGF W	10	−17	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AGF W

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gade

4 M. Ahrenholt

6 J. Poulsen

7 C. Johansen

8 S. Lundberg

9 S. Andersen

10 M. Braithwaite

16 M. Lerche

17 E. Rasmussen

18 L. Guldbjerg

24 S. Lynge

Coach · Claus Struck

Substitutes

5 · C. Harslof

11 · L. Aarhus

13 · D. Jorgensen

19 · S. Jorgensen

22 · M. Dybro

25 · C. Schulz

31 · A. Klausen

ASA Aarhus W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Christiansen

3 L. Staer

5 T. Hymoller

7 C. Jensen

8 H. Fuglsang

10 A. Larsen

17 I. Eriksen

18 M. Nielsen

19 K. Wutborg

21 M. Nielsen

28 I. Thomsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · A. Hauge

6 · S. Jusjong

14 · L. Sorensen

15 · T. Fremo

20 · P. Madsen

23 · N. Schroder

25 · F. Jensen

Our number · agf w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make AGF W a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AGF W v ASA Aarhus W~~1.39 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Kvindeliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 13~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AGF W win	38%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
ASA Aarhus W win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
AGF W or draw	63%	–	–
AGF W clean sheet	27%	–	–
ASA Aarhus W clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 9.1 6.0 2.7 1 9.3 11.6 7.9 3.6 2 6.2 8.0 5.4 2.5 3 2.9 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AGF W down, ASA Aarhus W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 517 Kvindeliga matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kvindeliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AGF W at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). ASA Aarhus W away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for AGF W, 1.35 for ASA Aarhus W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ASA 3–1 AGF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kvindeliga this season · since 29 Aug

AGF W

LLWLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

ASA AARHUS W

WLWDLW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Køge W	10	+19	25
2	Nordsjælland W	10	+20	21
3	Brøndby W	10	+17	20
4	Fortuna Hjørring W	10	+11	17
5	Midtjylland W	10	+2	17
6	ASA Aarhus W	10	−7	13
7	KoldingQ W	10	−9	12
8	Odense Q W	10	−15	10
9	FC Copenhagen W	10	−21	6
10	AGF W	10	−17	3