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Model 1.2

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Vanløse v Nykobing FC

Vanløse
0–2Full time
Nykobing FC

DBU Pokalen · WED 21 OCT · Vanlose Idraetspark

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:30
Vanløse 0–2 Nykobing FC NYKOBING FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nykobing FC win56%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.285
The market’s Brier score0.227

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nykobing FC win at 56%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Vanløse v Nykobing FC
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Nykobing FC was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 20–24–56
  4. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Nykobing FC win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
  5. 43′We said Nykobing FC at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 19–37–44
  6. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' O. Balslov · Nykobing FC
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Vanløse 0–0 Nykobing FC
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Vanløse 0–0 Nykobing FC
  9. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' T. Egholm · Vanløse
  10. 47′Nykobing FC ahead on 47′ through O. Jakobsen. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
  11. 47′We published Nykobing FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
  12. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vanløse 0–1 Nykobing FC · O. Jakobsen
  13. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Nykobing FC win: 56% at kick-off, 81% now
  14. 62′P. Ullum scores for Nykobing FC on 62′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  15. 62′We published Nykobing FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  16. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vanløse · On: L. Gudmann · Off: E. Bodholdt-Larsen
  17. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Vanløse 0–2 Nykobing FC · P. Ullum
  18. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Nykobing FC win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
  19. 63′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Nykobing FC · On: K. Jensen · Off: O. Balslov
  21. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nykobing FC · On: M. Rasmussen · Off: A. Rrahmani
  22. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' M. Rasmussen · Nykobing FC
  23. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Vanløse · On: A. Jahic · Off: A. Barlach
  24. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vanløse · On: P. Allentoft · Off: M. Sonne
  25. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' C. Nnamani · Vanløse
  26. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' P. Allentoft · Vanløse
  27. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' E. Ogude · Nykobing FC
  28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nykobing FC · On: M. Brems · Off: N. Sekula
  29. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nykobing FC · On: B. Kold · Off: O. Jakobsen
  30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vanløse · On: P. Grujovic · Off: M. Qvarnstrom
  31. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vanløse · On: M. Vinterberg · Off: T. Egholm
  32. 80′We published Nykobing FC at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  33. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nykobing FC · On: O. Gartig · Off: M. Dahl
  34. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' L. Nyman · Nykobing FC
  35. FTFULL TIME Vanløse 0–2 Nykobing FC
  36. FTVanløse 0–2 Nykobing FC · Nykobing FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nykobing FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vanløse 20%, draw 23%, Nykobing FC 56%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vanløse v Nykobing FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Vanløse win20%
Draw23%
Nykobing FC win56%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueVanlose Idraetspark

Line-ups

Vanløse

Nykobing FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vanløse

Nykobing FC

4Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vanløse

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jensen

18 C. Nnamani

4 E. Bodholdt-Larsen

17 T. Egholm

25 M. Qvarnström

14 A. Barlach

12 O. Velje

8 K. Lauritzen

19 W. Kattrup

3 B. Paludan

9 M. Sonne

Coach · Mads Hadberg

Substitutes

27 · H. Hyde

2 · M. Hojland

16 · P. Grujovic

10 · A. Jahic

11 · L. Lysemose

21 · M. Vinterberg

7 · P. Allentoft

13 · M. Esenli

30 · L. Gudmann

Nykobing FC

Formation not confirmed

26 V. Skov

12 O. Svendsen

27 O. Balslov

5 P. Ullum

19 N. Sekula

9 M. Dahl

8 R. O'Driscoll

7 L. Nyman

17 A. Rrahmani

16 E. Ogude

10 O. Jakobsen

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · F. Liisborg

3 · K. Jensen

4 · M. Brems

23 · O. Gartig

11 · B. Kold

22 · M. Rasmussen

30 · J. Karlsson

Our number · nykobing fc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off
56% The market61%
Us56%
Market61%

We make Nykobing FC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Vanløse v Nykobing FC0.93 – 1.76
Form · DBU Pokalen this season · since 4 AugW1 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L0
The market · Nykobing FC win61% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 17:44
Our probability · Nykobing FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Vanløse win20%18%+2
Draw23%21%+2
Nykobing FC win56%61%−5
Over 2.5 goals50%63%−13
Both teams to score49%58%−9
Over 1.5 goals74%83%−9
Over 3.5 goals28%42%−14
Vanløse or draw44%39%+5
Vanløse clean sheet18%––
Nykobing FC clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%
0123450 7.1 12.1 10.4 6.1 2.8 1 6.5 10.8 9.4 5.5 2.5 2 3.0 5.1 4.4 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Vanløse down, Nykobing FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2018/19
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsNYK 5–1 VAN · VAN 0–3 NYK · NYK 2–1 VAN · VAN 2–2 NYK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · DBU Pokalen this season · since 4 Aug

VANLØSE

DWD1–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

NYKOBING FC

WDD2–0 · 1–1 · 4–4