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Roskilde v Aarhus

Roskilde
19:00Upcoming
Aarhus

DBU Pokalen · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RoskildeDrawAarhus
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Aarhus 75%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aarhus are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roskilde 10%, draw 15%, Aarhus 75%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Roskilde v AarhusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Roskilde win10%
Draw15%
Aarhus win75%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roskilde

Aarhus

5Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aarhus winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
75% The market–
Us75%

We make Aarhus a 75% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.6, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Roskilde v Aarhus0.89 – 2.65
Form · DBU Pokalen this season · since 4 AugW3 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80% 22 OCT 00:0124 OCT 23:50
Our probability · Aarhus win

Published at 76%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Roskilde win10%––
Draw15%––
Aarhus win75%––
Over 2.5 goals69%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals87%––
Over 3.5 goals47%––
Roskilde or draw25%––
Roskilde clean sheet7%––
Aarhus clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.2%
0123450 3.1 7.5 10.2 9.0 6.0 3.21 2.4 7.1 9.1 8.0 5.3 2.82 3.0 4.0 3.6 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Roskilde down, Aarhus across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · DBU Pokalen this season · since 4 Aug

ROSKILDE

WWW5–0 · 5–0 · 2–1

AARHUS

W6–1