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Vanløse v Holbæk B&I

Vanløse

0–0Full time

Holbæk B&I

3. Division · SAT 10 OCT · Vanlose Idraetspark

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Vanløse 0–0 Holbæk B&I HOLBÆK B&I WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holbæk B&I win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.869

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.830

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Holbæk B&I win at 44%.
2′KICK-OFF Vanløse v Holbæk B&I
4′Much as we predicted: Holbæk B&I was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–25–43
45′HALF-TIME Vanløse 0–0 Holbæk B&I
48′SECOND HALF Vanløse 0–0 Holbæk B&I
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Holbæk B&I win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Holbæk B&I win 34%)
59′PENALTY MISSED · 59' Holbæk B&I
69′59′ and it is 0–0: Holbæk B&I have scored. 0–0 · 19–57–24
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Holbæk B&I win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
87′PENALTY MISSED · 59' Holbæk B&I
90′We said Holbæk B&I at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Holbæk B&I win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Vanløse 0–0 Holbæk B&I
FTVanløse 0–0 Holbæk B&I · Holbæk B&I win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vanløse win32%

Draw24%

Holbæk B&I win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Vanlose Idraetspark

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holbæk b&i winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Holbæk B&I a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · holbæk b&i win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vanløse win	32%	33%	−1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Holbæk B&I win	44%	41%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−4
Vanløse or draw	56%	59%	−2
Vanløse clean sheet	21%	–	–
Holbæk B&I clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.8 9.1 7.0 3.7 1 7.6 11.2 8.8 4.6 2 4.8 7.4 5.7 3.0 3 2.1 3.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vanløse down, Holbæk B&I across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vanløse at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Holbæk B&I away: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Vanløse, 1.57 for Holbæk B&I. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HOL 4–1 VAN · VAN 1–3 HOL · HOL 1–2 VAN · VAN 1–1 HOL

Form · last six in 3. Division

VANLØSE

DWWDDW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

HOLBÆK B&I

WWLWLW3–2 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 1–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	10	+8	22
2	Brønshøj	10	+8	19
3	Vanløse	10	+7	19
4	Næsby	10	+6	17
5	FC Helsingor	10	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	10	0	16
7	Holstebro	10	−6	13
8	Hørsholm-Usserød	10	+1	12
9	Ishøj	11	−9	11
10	Sundby	11	−3	10
11	Frem	10	−2	9
12	Ringsted	10	−14	5