Vanløse v ASA Aarhus

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vanløse win at 45%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vanløse was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
3. 1′KICK-OFF Vanløse v ASA Aarhus
4. 11′A red card for ASA Aarhus on 11′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 43–29–28
5. 11′🟥 RED CARD · 11' ASA Aarhus
6. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Vanløse win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
7. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Vanløse win 37%)
8. 45′HALF-TIME Vanløse 0–0 ASA Aarhus
9. 46′SECOND HALF Vanløse 0–0 ASA Aarhus
10. 48′We said Vanløse at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–23
11. 48′Vanløse score on 47′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
12. 48′We published Vanløse at 45%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
13. 48′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
14. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Vanløse 1–0 ASA Aarhus
15. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Vanløse win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
16. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Vanløse win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 43%)
17. 59′We published Vanløse at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
18. 71′We published Vanløse at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
19. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Vanløse win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
20. 79′We published Vanløse at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
21. 86′We published Vanløse at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
22. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Vanløse win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
23. FTFULL TIME Vanløse 1–0 ASA Aarhus
24. FTVanløse 1–0 ASA Aarhus · Vanløse win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.