Sundby v Brønshøj prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Sundby 3–1 Brønshøj SUNDBY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sundby win~~38%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.580

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.935

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sundby win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sundby was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–37
1′KICK-OFF Sundby v Brønshøj
14′A goal for Sundby on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–20–16
14′We published Sundby at 38%. Our model now makes it 64%. 1–0 · 64–20–16
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sundby 1–0 Brønshøj
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Sundby win: 38% at kick-off, 64% now
21′We published Sundby at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–15
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 66–21–13
39′Brønshøj score on 39′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–34–33
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sundby 1–1 Brønshøj
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sundby win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Sundby win 67%)
45′HALF-TIME Sundby 1–1 Brønshøj
46′SECOND HALF Sundby 1–1 Brønshøj
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Sundby win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
61′We said Sundby at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
65′We said Sundby at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
73′We said Sundby at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Sundby win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
79′We said Sundby at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
84′Sundby find the net on 83′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
84′We published Sundby at 38%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
84′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sundby 2–1 Brønshøj
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Sundby win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Sundby win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 81%)
89′We published Sundby at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Sundby win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
94′A goal for Sundby on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Sundby 3–1 Brønshøj
95′We published Sundby at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sundby 3–1 Brønshøj
FTSundby 3–1 Brønshøj · Sundby win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sundby just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sundby 38%, draw 24%, Brønshøj 37%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Sundby v BrønshøjBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sundby win38%

Draw24%

Brønshøj win37%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sundby

Brønshøj

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Brønshøj	12	+13	25
10	Sundby	12	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sundby winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market23%

Us38%

~~Market~~23%

We make Sundby a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sundby v Brønshøj~~1.48 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 25~~10 v 2

~~The market · Sundby win~~23% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sundby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sundby win	38%	23%	+15
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Brønshøj win	37%	54%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	56%	62%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	83%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	41%	−7
Sundby or draw	63%	46%	+17
Sundby clean sheet	24%	–	–
Brønshøj clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 7.8 5.6 2.8 1 7.9 11.2 8.1 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 6.0 2.9 3 2.9 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sundby down, Brønshøj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,031 3. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sundby at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Brønshøj away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Sundby, 1.47 for Brønshøj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BRO 3–1 SUN · BRO 4–2 SUN · SUN 3–3 BRO · BRO 0–0 SUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept

SUNDBY

LWWLLW1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

BRØNSHØJ

WWDDWW3–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	12	+12	26
2	Brønshøj	12	+13	25
3	Vanløse	12	+7	21
4	FC Helsingor	12	+4	20
5	Næsby	12	+4	18
6	Hørsholm-Usserød	12	+3	16
7	ASA Aarhus	12	−2	16
8	Ishøj	12	−8	14
9	Frem	12	0	13
10	Sundby	12	−2	13
11	Holstebro	12	−12	13
12	Ringsted	12	−19	5