Ringsted v Ishøj prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Ringsted 1–1 Ishøj ISHØJ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ishøj win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.923

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.883

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ishøj win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ishøj 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 34–22–44
1′KICK-OFF Ringsted v Ishøj
12′Ringsted score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 57–21–22
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ringsted 1–0 Ishøj
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Ishøj win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Ringsted win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Ishøj win 43%)
13′We said Ishøj at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 57–21–22
25′We said Ishøj at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 60–22–18
43′We said Ishøj at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ishøj win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME Ringsted 1–0 Ishøj
46′SECOND HALF Ringsted 1–0 Ishøj
58′We said Ishøj at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
72′We said Ishøj at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Ishøj win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
93′Ishøj find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 3–94–3
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ringsted 1–1 Ishøj
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Ringsted win 96%)
FTFULL TIME Ringsted 1–1 Ishøj
FTRingsted 1–1 Ishøj · Ishøj win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ishøj are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ringsted 34%, draw 22%, Ishøj 44%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Ringsted v IshøjBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ringsted win34%

Draw22%

Ishøj win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueRingsted Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ringsted

Ishøj

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ishøj	12	−8	14
12	Ringsted	12	−19	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ishøj winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Ishøj a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ringsted v Ishøj~~1.64 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 14~~12 v 10

~~The market · Ishøj win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ishøj win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ringsted win	34%	28%	+6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Ishøj win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Both teams to score	67%	65%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Ringsted or draw	56%	52%	+4
Ringsted clean sheet	16%	–	–
Ishøj clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.3 5.8 5.3 3.3 1 5.0 9.0 8.3 5.2 2.5 2 4.0 7.2 6.6 4.2 2.0 3 2.2 4.0 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ringsted down, Ishøj across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 3. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ringsted at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ishøj away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Ringsted, 1.89 for Ishøj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ISH 2–2 RIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept

RINGSTED

LLLDLL1–3 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–4

ISHØJ

LWWDWW0–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	12	+12	26
2	Brønshøj	13	+11	25
3	Vanløse	12	+7	21
4	FC Helsingor	13	+4	21
5	Næsby	12	+4	18
6	Hørsholm-Usserød	12	+3	16
7	Sundby	13	0	16
8	ASA Aarhus	12	−2	16
9	Frem	13	0	14
10	Ishøj	12	−8	14
11	Holstebro	12	−12	13
12	Ringsted	12	−19	5