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Ringsted v Hørsholm-Usserød

Ringsted

2–4Full time

Hørsholm-Usserød

3. Division · SAT 10 OCT · Ringsted Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Ringsted 2–4 Hørsholm-Usserød HØRSHOLM-USSERØD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hørsholm-Usserød win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.522

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hørsholm-Usserød win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hørsholm-Usserød was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 37–21–42
1′KICK-OFF Ringsted v Hørsholm-Usserød
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Ringsted 1–0 Hørsholm-Usserød
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ringsted 1–1 Hørsholm-Usserød
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ringsted 1–2 Hørsholm-Usserød
22′17′ and it is 1–2: Hørsholm-Usserød have scored. 1–2 · 17–19–64
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 42% at kick-off, 64% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Ringsted 1–3 Hørsholm-Usserød
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ringsted 1–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
42′A goal for Hørsholm-Usserød on 35′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 1–3–96
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 42% at kick-off, 96% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ringsted 2–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
45′HALF-TIME Ringsted 2–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
46′45′ and it is 2–4: Ringsted have scored. 2–4 · 3–9–88
46′SECOND HALF Ringsted 2–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 42% at kick-off, 88% now
66′We published Hørsholm-Usserød at 42%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–4 · 1–5–94
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 42% at kick-off, 94% now
86′We published Hørsholm-Usserød at 42%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ringsted 2–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
FTRingsted 2–4 Hørsholm-Usserød · Hørsholm-Usserød win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ringsted win38%

Draw20%

Hørsholm-Usserød win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Ringsted Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hørsholm-usserød winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Hørsholm-Usserød a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hørsholm-usserød win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ringsted win	38%	34%	+4
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Hørsholm-Usserød win	42%	41%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	75%	67%	+8
Both teams to score	73%	69%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	49%	+7
Ringsted or draw	58%	59%	−1
Ringsted clean sheet	14%	–	–
Hørsholm-Usserød clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.4%

0123450 2.0 4.1 4.0 2.7 1 3.9 7.3 7.4 5.0 2.6 2 3.6 7.0 6.9 4.7 2.5 3 2.3 4.5 4.5 3.0 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ringsted down, Hørsholm-Usserød across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ringsted at home: 1.20 scored, 2.40 conceded a game (last 5). Hørsholm-Usserød away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Ringsted, 2.05 for Hørsholm-Usserød. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Division

RINGSTED

WLLLLD2–0 · 2–5 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–2

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD

LLWDLW0–2 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	10	+8	22
2	Brønshøj	10	+8	19
3	Vanløse	10	+7	19
4	Næsby	10	+6	17
5	FC Helsingor	10	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	10	0	16
7	Holstebro	10	−6	13
8	Hørsholm-Usserød	10	+1	12
9	Ishøj	11	−9	11
10	Sundby	11	−3	10
11	Frem	10	−2	9
12	Ringsted	10	−14	5