Næsby v Holbæk B&I prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Næsby 1–2 Holbæk B&I NÆSBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Næsby win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.588

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.488

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Næsby win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Næsby 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–21–38
1′KICK-OFF Næsby v Holbæk B&I
31′A goal for Næsby on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–20–15
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Næsby 1–0 Holbæk B&I
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
32′We said Næsby at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–0 · 64–20–15
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 64–20–15
33′We said Næsby at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
36′Holbæk B&I score on 36′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–28–35
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Næsby 1–1 Holbæk B&I
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Næsby 1–1 Holbæk B&I
46′SECOND HALF Næsby 1–1 Holbæk B&I
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Næsby win 34%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
62′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–42–28
71′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
77′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
82′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–73–13
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
86′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
92′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
92′Holbæk B&I find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Næsby 1–2 Holbæk B&I
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Holbæk B&I win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 92%)
FTFULL TIME Næsby 1–2 Holbæk B&I
FTNæsby 1–2 Holbæk B&I · Næsby win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Næsby just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Næsby 41%, draw 21%, Holbæk B&I 38%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Næsby v Holbæk B&IBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Næsby win41%

Draw21%

Holbæk B&I win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueALPI Arena Naesby

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Næsby

Holbæk B&I

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · næsby winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Næsby a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Næsby v Holbæk B&I~~1.92 – 1.87

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 26~~5 v 1

~~The market · Næsby win~~32% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Næsby win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Næsby win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Holbæk B&I win	38%	43%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	72%	65%	+7
Both teams to score	71%	66%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	89%	83%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	52%	44%	+8
Næsby or draw	62%	57%	+5
Næsby clean sheet	16%	–	–
Holbæk B&I clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 4.4 4.0 2.5 1 4.5 8.1 7.4 4.6 2.2 2 4.3 7.6 7.0 4.3 2.1 3 2.7 4.9 4.5 2.8 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Næsby down, Holbæk B&I across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 3. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Næsby at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Holbæk B&I away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Næsby, 1.87 for Holbæk B&I. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOL 3–2 NAE · HOL 1–2 NAE · NAE 2–0 HOL · HOL 2–2 NAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept

NÆSBY

LDWWLD0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

HOLBÆK B&I

LWLWDW1–3 · 5–2 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	12	+12	26
2	Brønshøj	13	+11	25
3	Vanløse	12	+7	21
4	FC Helsingor	13	+4	21
5	Næsby	12	+4	18
6	Hørsholm-Usserød	12	+3	16
7	Sundby	13	0	16
8	ASA Aarhus	12	−2	16
9	Frem	13	0	14
10	Ishøj	12	−8	14
11	Holstebro	12	−12	13
12	Ringsted	12	−19	5