Ishøj v FC Helsingor prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Ishøj 1–0 FC Helsingor FC HELSINGOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Helsingor win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Helsingor win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Helsingor 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
1′KICK-OFF Ishøj v FC Helsingor
31′Ishøj score on 31′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
31′We said FC Helsingor at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ishøj 1–0 FC Helsingor
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' FC Helsingor win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Ishøj win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was FC Helsingor win 14%)
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–14
45′HALF-TIME Ishøj 1–0 FC Helsingor
46′SECOND HALF Ishøj 1–0 FC Helsingor
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' FC Helsingor win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
51′We said FC Helsingor at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
59′FC Helsingor are down to ten from 59′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 72–21–7
59′🟥 RED CARD · 59' FC Helsingor
68′We said FC Helsingor at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FC Helsingor win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Ishøj 1–0 FC Helsingor
FTIshøj 1–0 FC Helsingor · FC Helsingor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Helsingor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ishøj 37%, draw 23%, FC Helsingor 40%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ishøj v FC HelsingorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ishøj win37%

Draw23%

FC Helsingor win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ishøj

FC Helsingor

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Helsingor	11	+5	20
10	Ishøj	11	−9	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc helsingor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make FC Helsingor a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ishøj v FC Helsingor~~1.51 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~10 v 4

~~The market · FC Helsingor win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Helsingor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ishøj win	37%	32%	+5
Draw	23%	26%	−3
FC Helsingor win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Ishøj or draw	60%	58%	+2
Ishøj clean sheet	21%	–	–
FC Helsingor clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 7.4 5.7 3.1 1 7.0 10.5 8.2 4.4 2 5.2 7.9 6.1 3.3 3 2.7 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ishøj down, FC Helsingor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,025 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ishøj at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Helsingor away: 1.40 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Ishøj, 1.59 for FC Helsingor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FCH 1–0 ISH · ISH 2–2 FCH · FCH 4–0 ISH · FCH 1–3 ISH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 4 Sept

ISHØJ

LLWWDW0–4 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

FC HELSINGOR

LWDWLW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	11	+8	23
2	Brønshøj	11	+10	22
3	Vanløse	11	+7	20
4	FC Helsingor	11	+5	20
5	Næsby	11	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	11	−1	16
7	Hørsholm-Usserød	11	+3	15
8	Holstebro	11	−8	13
9	Frem	11	0	12
10	Ishøj	11	−9	11
11	Sundby	11	−3	10
12	Ringsted	11	−16	5