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Model 1.2

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Hørsholm-Usserød v Frem

Hørsholm-Usserød
1–1Full time
Frem

3. Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Hørsholm-Usserød 1–1 Frem HØRSHOLM-USSERØD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Hørsholm-Usserød win43%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.921
The market’s Brier score0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hørsholm-Usserød win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hørsholm-Usserød 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hørsholm-Usserød v Frem
  4. 38′A goal for Hørsholm-Usserød on 38′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–12
  5. 38′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
  6. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Hørsholm-Usserød 1–0 Frem
  7. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Hørsholm-Usserød 1–0 Frem
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Hørsholm-Usserød 1–0 Frem
  10. 49′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
  11. 54′Frem score on 54′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–38–29
  12. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Hørsholm-Usserød 1–1 Frem
  13. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Hørsholm-Usserød win 33%)
  15. 55′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 33–39–29
  16. 58′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–41–28
  17. 63′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–45–26
  18. 71′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–22
  19. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  20. 77′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
  21. 82′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–75–12
  22. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  23. 86′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
  24. 92′We said Hørsholm-Usserød at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–4
  25. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Hørsholm-Usserød win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  26. FTFULL TIME Hørsholm-Usserød 1–1 Frem
  27. FTHørsholm-Usserød 1–1 Frem · Hørsholm-Usserød win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hørsholm-Usserød are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hørsholm-Usserød 43%, draw 22%, Frem 36%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Hørsholm-Usserød v FremBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hørsholm-Usserød win43%
Draw22%
Frem win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hørsholm-Usserød

Frem

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Hørsholm-Usserød11+315
9Frem11012

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hørsholm-usserød winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market34%
Us43%
Market34%

We make Hørsholm-Usserød a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hørsholm-Usserød v Frem1.86 – 1.69
Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 4 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 15 v 127 v 9
The market · Hørsholm-Usserød win34% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 12:16
Our probability · Hørsholm-Usserød win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hørsholm-Usserød win43%34%+9
Draw22%26%−4
Frem win36%41%−5
Over 2.5 goals68%61%+7
Both teams to score68%63%+5
Over 1.5 goals86%81%+5
Over 3.5 goals47%41%+6
Hørsholm-Usserød or draw64%59%+5
Hørsholm-Usserød clean sheet19%––
Frem clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%
0123450 3.1 5.1 4.2 2.4 1 5.5 8.9 7.5 4.2 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.8 3 3.1 5.1 4.2 2.4 4 2.4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hørsholm-Usserød down, Frem across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.33
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsFRE 1–1 HOR · FRE 0–1 HOR · HOR 0–1 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 4 Sept

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD

LWDLWW3–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 4–2

FREM

WLLLDW5–2 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Holbæk B&I11+823
2Brønshøj11+1022
3Vanløse11+720
4FC Helsingor11+520
5Næsby11+417
6ASA Aarhus11−116
7Hørsholm-Usserød11+315
8Holstebro11−813
9Frem11012
10Ishøj11−911
11Sundby11−310
12Ringsted11−165

The competition's standings before kick-off.