Holstebro v Hørsholm-Usserød prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Holstebro 0–4 Hørsholm-Usserød HOLSTEBRO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holstebro win~~42%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.590

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.433

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Holstebro win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Holstebro 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–20–38
1′KICK-OFF Holstebro v Hørsholm-Usserød
17′Hørsholm-Usserød find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–19–60
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Holstebro 0–1 Hørsholm-Usserød
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Holstebro win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Hørsholm-Usserød win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Holstebro win 40%)
18′We said Holstebro at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–19–60
24′A goal for Hørsholm-Usserød on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–12–81
24′We said Holstebro at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–12–81
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Holstebro 0–2 Hørsholm-Usserød
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Holstebro win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
32′Hørsholm-Usserød score on 32′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 2–5–93
32′We said Holstebro at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–3 · 2–5–93
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Holstebro 0–3 Hørsholm-Usserød
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Holstebro win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
45′HALF-TIME Holstebro 0–3 Hørsholm-Usserød
46′SECOND HALF Holstebro 0–3 Hørsholm-Usserød
57′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 0–3 · 0–2–98
94′Hørsholm-Usserød find the net on 90′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Holstebro 0–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
FTFULL TIME Holstebro 0–4 Hørsholm-Usserød
FTHolstebro 0–4 Hørsholm-Usserød · Holstebro win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Holstebro just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Holstebro 42%, draw 20%, Hørsholm-Usserød 39%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Holstebro v Hørsholm-UsserødBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Holstebro win42%

Draw20%

Hørsholm-Usserød win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holstebro

Hørsholm-Usserød

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hørsholm-Usserød	12	+3	16
11	Holstebro	12	−12	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holstebro winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

42% The market30%

Us42%

~~Market~~30%

We make Holstebro a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holstebro v Hørsholm-Usserød~~2.11 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 16~~11 v 6

~~The market · Holstebro win~~30% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Holstebro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holstebro win	42%	30%	+12
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Hørsholm-Usserød win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	77%	67%	+10
Both teams to score	75%	67%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	91%	85%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	59%	46%	+13
Holstebro or draw	61%	54%	+7
Holstebro clean sheet	14%	–	–
Hørsholm-Usserød clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.1%

0123450 3.4 3.3 2.2 1 3.6 6.9 6.7 4.5 2.4 2 3.7 7.1 6.9 4.6 2.4 3 2.6 4.9 4.8 3.3 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holstebro down, Hørsholm-Usserød across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 3. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holstebro at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hørsholm-Usserød away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Holstebro, 2.04 for Hørsholm-Usserød. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HOR 2–3 HOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept

HOLSTEBRO

WLLLLL3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–4 · 0–4

HØRSHOLM-USSERØD

WDLWWD3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	12	+12	26
2	Brønshøj	13	+11	25
3	Vanløse	12	+7	21
4	FC Helsingor	13	+4	21
5	Næsby	12	+4	18
6	Hørsholm-Usserød	12	+3	16
7	Sundby	13	0	16
8	ASA Aarhus	12	−2	16
9	Frem	13	0	14
10	Ishøj	12	−8	14
11	Holstebro	12	−12	13
12	Ringsted	12	−19	5