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Holstebro v Brønshøj

Holstebro

2–4Full time

Brønshøj

3. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Holstebro 2–4 Brønshøj BRØNSHØJ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brønshøj win~~39%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brønshøj win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Holstebro 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Holstebro v Brønshøj
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Holstebro 1–0 Brønshøj
21′Holstebro find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–21–16
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Brønshøj win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Holstebro 1–1 Brønshøj
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Holstebro 2–1 Brønshøj
37′⚽ GOAL · 35' Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
41′Brønshøj find the net on 35′. 2–2. 2–2 · 33–33–34
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Brønshøj win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 33–35–33
45′HALF-TIME Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
46′SECOND HALF Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
54′⚽ GOAL · 9' Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
54′⚽ GOAL · 27' Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
54′⚽ GOAL · 31' Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
54′⚽ GOAL · 35' Holstebro 2–2 Brønshøj
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Holstebro 2–3 Brønshøj
61′A goal for Brønshøj on 57′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 6–21–73
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Brønshøj win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Brønshøj win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Holstebro win 6%)
83′84′ and it is 2–3: Brønshøj have scored. 2–3 · 1–10–89
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Brønshøj win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
86′⚽ GOAL · 84' Holstebro 2–4 Brønshøj
FTFULL TIME Holstebro 2–4 Brønshøj
FTHolstebro 2–4 Brønshøj · Brønshøj win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Holstebro win39%

Draw22%

Brønshøj win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brønshøj winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

39% The market53%

Us39%

~~Market~~53%

We make Brønshøj a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brønshøj win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holstebro win	39%	23%	+15
Draw	22%	24%	−1
Brønshøj win	39%	53%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	64%	60%	+4
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Holstebro or draw	61%	47%	+14
Holstebro clean sheet	20%	–	–
Brønshøj clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 6.3 5.0 2.8 1 6.3 9.7 8.0 4.5 2 5.1 8.0 6.5 3.6 3 2.8 4.4 3.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holstebro down, Brønshøj across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holstebro at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Brønshøj away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Holstebro, 1.67 for Brønshøj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOL 2–1 BRO · BRO 5–1 HOL

Form · last six in 3. Division

HOLSTEBRO

LLWLLL0–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–4

BRØNSHØJ

WWWWDD2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	10	+8	22
2	Brønshøj	10	+8	19
3	Vanløse	10	+7	19
4	Næsby	10	+6	17
5	FC Helsingor	10	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	10	0	16
7	Holstebro	10	−6	13
8	Hørsholm-Usserød	10	+1	12
9	Ishøj	11	−9	11
10	Sundby	11	−3	10
11	Frem	10	−2	9
12	Ringsted	10	−14	5