Holbæk B&I v Vanløse prediction · 3. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Holbæk B&IDrawVanløse

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Holbæk B&I 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Holbæk B&I are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Holbæk B&I 57%, draw 23%, Vanløse 20%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Holbæk B&I v VanløseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Holbæk B&I win57%

Draw23%

Vanløse win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holbæk B&I

Vanløse

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holbæk b&i winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Holbæk B&I a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holbæk B&I v Vanløse~~1.84 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 29 v 24~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holbæk B&I win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Vanløse win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Holbæk B&I or draw	80%	–	–
Holbæk B&I clean sheet	38%	–	–
Vanløse clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.2 6.0 2.9 1 11.0 10.6 5.2 2 10.0 9.6 4.7 3 6.1 5.9 2.9 4 2.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holbæk B&I down, Vanløse across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 3. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.4% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holbæk B&I at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vanløse away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Holbæk B&I, 0.98 for Vanløse. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VAN 0–0 HOL · HOL 4–1 VAN · VAN 1–3 HOL · HOL 1–2 VAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 18 Sept

HOLBÆK B&I

WLWDWW5–2 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–1

VANLØSE

DDWDDW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	13	+13	29
2	Brønshøj	13	+11	25
3	Vanløse	13	+8	24
4	FC Helsingor	13	+4	21
5	Hørsholm-Usserød	13	+7	19
6	Næsby	13	+3	18
7	Sundby	13	0	16
8	ASA Aarhus	13	−3	16
9	Ishøj	13	−8	15
10	Frem	13	0	14
11	Holstebro	13	−16	13
12	Ringsted	13	−19	6