Holbæk B&I v Holstebro prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Holbæk B&I 4–0 Holstebro HOLBÆK B&I WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holbæk B&I win~~70%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.138

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.165

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Holbæk B&I win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Holbæk B&I was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–15–15
1′KICK-OFF Holbæk B&I v Holstebro
29′A goal for Holbæk B&I on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–5
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Holbæk B&I 1–0 Holstebro
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Holbæk B&I win: 70% at kick-off, 83% now
30′We published Holbæk B&I at 70%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–5
45′HALF-TIME Holbæk B&I 1–0 Holstebro
46′SECOND HALF Holbæk B&I 1–0 Holstebro
66′We published Holbæk B&I at 70%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
66′Holbæk B&I score on 66′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
66′We published Holbæk B&I at 70%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Holbæk B&I 2–0 Holstebro
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Holbæk B&I win: 70% at kick-off, 97% now
75′Holbæk B&I find the net on 74′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′We published Holbæk B&I at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Holbæk B&I 3–0 Holstebro
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Holbæk B&I win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
79′A goal for Holbæk B&I on 78′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′Goals are coming at about the 4.3 we expected. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Holbæk B&I 4–0 Holstebro
89′Holbæk B&I score on 89′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Holbæk B&I 5–0 Holstebro
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Holbæk B&I
FTFULL TIME Holbæk B&I 4–0 Holstebro
FTHolbæk B&I 4–0 Holstebro · Holbæk B&I win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Holbæk B&I are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Holbæk B&I 70%, draw 15%, Holstebro 15%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Holbæk B&I v HolstebroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Holbæk B&I win70%

Draw15%

Holstebro win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holbæk B&I

Holstebro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holbæk b&i winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

70% The market67%

Us70%

~~Market~~67%

We make Holbæk B&I a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holbæk B&I v Holstebro~~2.95 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 23 v 13~~1 v 8

~~The market · Holbæk B&I win~~67% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Holbæk B&I win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holbæk B&I win	70%	67%	+3
Draw	15%	19%	−4
Holstebro win	15%	14%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	79%	68%	+11
Both teams to score	68%	60%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	92%	86%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	61%	49%	+12
Holbæk B&I or draw	85%	86%	−1
Holbæk B&I clean sheet	27%	–	–
Holstebro clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.1 1 4.5 5.6 3.7 2 6.2 7.9 5.1 2.3 3 5.8 7.4 4.8 2.2 4 4.2 5.4 3.5 5 2.5 3.3 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Holbæk B&I down, Holstebro across0–5 goals a side shown (90.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,025 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holbæk B&I at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Holstebro away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.95 goals for Holbæk B&I, 1.32 for Holstebro. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~Holstebro 2–2 Holbæk B&I · Holbæk B&I 2–1 Holstebro · Holstebro 0–1 Holbæk B&I · Holbæk B&I 2–1 Holstebro

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 5 Sept

HOLBÆK B&I

WLWLWD4–0 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–0

HOLSTEBRO

LWLLLL1–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	11	+8	23
2	Brønshøj	11	+10	22
3	Vanløse	11	+7	20
4	FC Helsingor	11	+5	20
5	Næsby	11	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	11	−1	16
7	Hørsholm-Usserød	11	+3	15
8	Holstebro	11	−8	13
9	Frem	11	0	12
10	Ishøj	11	−9	11
11	Sundby	11	−3	10
12	Ringsted	11	−16	5