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Frem v Næsby

Frem

2–0Full time

Næsby

3. Division · SAT 10 OCT · Valby Idraetspark

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Frem 2–0 Næsby NÆSBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Næsby win~~41%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.613

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Næsby win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Næsby 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 37–22–41
1′KICK-OFF Frem v Næsby
35′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Næsby
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Frem 1–0 Næsby
43′A goal for Frem on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Frem win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Næsby win 13%)
45′HALF-TIME Frem 1–0 Næsby
46′Næsby are down to ten from 35′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 65–23–12
46′SECOND HALF Frem 1–0 Næsby
68′We said Næsby at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–0 · 74–21–5
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
85′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Næsby
85′⚽ GOAL · 42' Frem 1–0 Næsby
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Frem 2–0 Næsby
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Næsby
88′85′ and it is 2–0: Frem have scored. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Næsby win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Frem 2–0 Næsby
FTFrem 2–0 Næsby · Næsby win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Frem win37%

Draw22%

Næsby win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Valby Idraetspark

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · næsby winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

41% The market37%

Us41%

~~Market~~37%

We make Næsby a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · næsby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frem win	37%	37%	0
Draw	22%	25%	−4
Næsby win	41%	37%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	60%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	40%	+7
Frem or draw	59%	63%	−4
Frem clean sheet	17%	–	–
Næsby clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 5.7 4.9 3.0 1 5.4 9.0 8.1 4.9 2.3 2 4.4 7.7 6.8 4.1 3 2.5 4.4 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frem down, Næsby across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 4.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frem at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Næsby away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Frem, 1.81 for Næsby. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAE 3–2 FRE · FRE 1–2 NAE · FRE 5–3 NAE · NAE 1–4 FRE

Form · last six in 3. Division

FREM

DWLLLD2–2 · 5–2 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–1

NÆSBY

LWLDWW2–3 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	10	+8	22
2	Brønshøj	10	+8	19
3	Vanløse	10	+7	19
4	Næsby	10	+6	17
5	FC Helsingor	10	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	10	0	16
7	Holstebro	10	−6	13
8	Hørsholm-Usserød	10	+1	12
9	Ishøj	11	−9	11
10	Sundby	11	−3	10
11	Frem	10	−2	9
12	Ringsted	10	−14	5