Frem v FC Helsingor prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Frem 1–1 FC Helsingor FREM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Frem win~~43%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Frem win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Frem was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Frem v FC Helsingor
45′HALF-TIME Frem 0–0 FC Helsingor
46′SECOND HALF Frem 0–0 FC Helsingor
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Frem win 36%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Frem win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
55′Frem find the net on 55′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
55′We published Frem at 43%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Frem 1–0 FC Helsingor
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Frem win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Frem win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 43%)
56′We published Frem at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
68′We published Frem at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Frem win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
76′We published Frem at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′A goal for FC Helsingor on 78′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–72–13
79′We said Frem at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–72–13
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Frem 1–1 FC Helsingor
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Frem win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Frem win 86%)
80′We said Frem at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Frem win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
84′We said Frem at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
91′We said Frem at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Frem win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Frem 1–1 FC Helsingor
FTFrem 1–1 FC Helsingor · Frem win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Frem are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Frem 43%, draw 24%, FC Helsingor 33%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Frem v FC HelsingorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Frem win43%

Draw24%

FC Helsingor win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueValby Idraetspark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Frem

FC Helsingor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Helsingor	12	+4	20
9	Frem	12	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · frem winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

43% The market39%

Us43%

~~Market~~39%

We make Frem a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Frem v FC Helsingor~~1.59 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~9 v 4

~~The market · Frem win~~39% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Frem win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Frem win	43%	39%	+4
Draw	24%	27%	−3
FC Helsingor win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Frem or draw	67%	66%	+1
Frem clean sheet	26%	–	–
FC Helsingor clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 7.3 4.9 2.2 1 8.5 11.1 7.5 3.4 2 6.7 8.7 5.8 2.7 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Frem down, FC Helsingor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,031 3. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Frem at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Helsingor away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Frem, 1.36 for FC Helsingor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FCH 1–0 FRE · FCH 1–0 FRE · FRE 1–1 FCH · FCH 1–1 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 13 Sept

FREM

LLLDWD2–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

FC HELSINGOR

WDWLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	12	+12	26
2	Brønshøj	12	+13	25
3	Vanløse	12	+7	21
4	FC Helsingor	12	+4	20
5	Næsby	12	+4	18
6	Hørsholm-Usserød	12	+3	16
7	ASA Aarhus	12	−2	16
8	Ishøj	12	−8	14
9	Frem	12	0	13
10	Sundby	12	−2	13
11	Holstebro	12	−12	13
12	Ringsted	12	−19	5