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FC Helsingor v ASA Aarhus

FC Helsingor

2–1Full time

ASA Aarhus

3. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

FC Helsingor 2–1 ASA Aarhus FC HELSINGOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Helsingor win~~49%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.286

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Helsingor win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Helsingor 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–28
1′KICK-OFF FC Helsingor v ASA Aarhus
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' FC Helsingor 1–0 ASA Aarhus
21′2′ and it is 1–0: FC Helsingor have scored. 1–0 · 73–17–10
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' FC Helsingor win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
42′We said FC Helsingor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME FC Helsingor 1–0 ASA Aarhus
46′SECOND HALF FC Helsingor 1–0 ASA Aarhus
68′We said FC Helsingor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' FC Helsingor win: 49% at kick-off, 82% now
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC Helsingor 1–1 ASA Aarhus
88′ASA Aarhus find the net on 86′. 1–1. 1–1 · 4–94–3
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' FC Helsingor win: 49% at kick-off, 4% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was FC Helsingor win 4%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' FC Helsingor 2–1 ASA Aarhus
FTFULL TIME FC Helsingor 2–1 ASA Aarhus
FTFC Helsingor 2–1 ASA Aarhus · FC Helsingor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Helsingor win49%

Draw23%

ASA Aarhus win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc helsingor winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

49% The market56%

Us49%

~~Market~~56%

We make FC Helsingor a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc helsingor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Helsingor win	49%	56%	−8
Draw	23%	23%	0
ASA Aarhus win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
FC Helsingor or draw	72%	79%	−7
FC Helsingor clean sheet	29%	–	–
ASA Aarhus clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.3 6.6 4.0 1 9.0 10.6 6.6 2.8 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.4 5.3 3.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Helsingor down, ASA Aarhus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

FC Helsingor at home: 2.20 scored, 0.80 conceded a game (last 5). ASA Aarhus away: 0.80 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for FC Helsingor, 1.25 for ASA Aarhus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Division

FC HELSINGOR

WLWDWL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–3

ASA AARHUS

WLWLWL4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	10	+8	22
2	Brønshøj	10	+8	19
3	Vanløse	10	+7	19
4	Næsby	10	+6	17
5	FC Helsingor	10	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	10	0	16
7	Holstebro	10	−6	13
8	Hørsholm-Usserød	10	+1	12
9	Ishøj	11	−9	11
10	Sundby	11	−3	10
11	Frem	10	−2	9
12	Ringsted	10	−14	5