Brønshøj v Ringsted prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Brønshøj 4–1 Ringsted BRØNSHØJ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brønshøj win~~64%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.195

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brønshøj win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brønshøj was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–18
1′KICK-OFF Brønshøj v Ringsted
24′Brønshøj find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
24′We published Brønshøj at 64%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Brønshøj 1–0 Ringsted
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Brønshøj win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
29′A goal for Brønshøj on 29′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Brønshøj 2–0 Ringsted
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Brønshøj win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
30′We published Brønshøj at 64%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
35′We published Brønshøj at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Brønshøj 2–0 Ringsted
46′SECOND HALF Brønshøj 2–0 Ringsted
54′Ringsted score on 54′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 82–14–4
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Brønshøj 2–1 Ringsted
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Brønshøj win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
59′Brønshøj find the net on 59′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
59′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Brønshøj 3–1 Ringsted
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Brønshøj win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
81′A goal for Brønshøj on 80′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′We published Brønshøj at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Brønshøj 4–1 Ringsted
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Brønshøj 4–1 Ringsted
FTBrønshøj 4–1 Ringsted · Brønshøj win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brønshøj are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brønshøj 64%, draw 18%, Ringsted 18%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Brønshøj v RingstedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brønshøj win64%

Draw18%

Ringsted win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueTingbjerg Idraetspark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brønshøj

Ringsted

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Brønshøj	11	+10	22
12	Ringsted	11	−16	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brønshøj winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market69%

Us64%

~~Market~~69%

We make Brønshøj a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brønshøj v Ringsted~~2.44 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 22 v 5~~2 v 12

~~The market · Brønshøj win~~69% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brønshøj win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brønshøj win	64%	69%	−5
Draw	18%	18%	0
Ringsted win	18%	13%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	59%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	48%	+1
Brønshøj or draw	82%	87%	−5
Brønshøj clean sheet	30%	–	–
Ringsted clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.8 3.4 2.0 1 6.6 7.7 4.6 2 7.7 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 6.2 7.3 4.4 4 3.8 4.5 2.7 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Brønshøj down, Ringsted across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,025 3. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brønshøj at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ringsted away: 1.40 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Brønshøj, 1.21 for Ringsted. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RIN 1–3 BRO · RIN 1–2 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 4 Sept

BRØNSHØJ

WWWDDW2–1 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

RINGSTED

LLLLDL2–5 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	11	+8	23
2	Brønshøj	11	+10	22
3	Vanløse	11	+7	20
4	FC Helsingor	11	+5	20
5	Næsby	11	+4	17
6	ASA Aarhus	11	−1	16
7	Hørsholm-Usserød	11	+3	15
8	Holstebro	11	−8	13
9	Frem	11	0	12
10	Ishøj	11	−9	11
11	Sundby	11	−3	10
12	Ringsted	11	−16	5