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ASA Aarhus v Sundby
ASA Aarhus
Sundby3. Division · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said ASA Aarhus win at 47%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: ASA Aarhus 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
- 1′KICK-OFF ASA Aarhus v Sundby
- 38′Sundby find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' ASA Aarhus 0–1 Sundby
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
- 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Sundby win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was ASA Aarhus win 15%)
- 39′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
- 39′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–60
- 41′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
- 45′HALF-TIME ASA Aarhus 0–1 Sundby
- 46′SECOND HALF ASA Aarhus 0–1 Sundby
- 50′Sundby find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
- 51′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–65
- 56′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 62′A goal for ASA Aarhus on 62′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–49–21
- 62′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–49–21
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' ASA Aarhus 1–1 Sundby
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 30% now
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Sundby win 21%)
- 63′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–20
- 63′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 29–50–20
- 71′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
- 76′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 89′Sundby score on 89′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' ASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Sundby win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
- 90′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 90′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- FTFULL TIME ASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby
- FTASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby · ASA Aarhus win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassASA Aarhus are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: ASA Aarhus 47%, draw 24%, Sundby 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
ASA Aarhus win47%
Sundby win29%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 12
Match timeline
All events
ASA AarhusMIN
SundbyEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
ASA Aarhus
Sundby
Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division
Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 3. Division
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make ASA Aarhus a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Aarhus win | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Sundby win | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 38% | −5 |
| ASA Aarhus or draw | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| ASA Aarhus clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Sundby clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 5 Sept
ASA AARHUS
SUNDBY
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 11 | +10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 5 | Næsby | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 11 | −1 | 16 |
| 7 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Holstebro | 11 | −8 | 13 |
| 9 | Frem | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Ishøj | 11 | −9 | 11 |
| 11 | Sundby | 11 | −3 | 10 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 11 | −16 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Holbæk B&I
Brønshøj
Vanløse
FC Helsingor
Næsby
Hørsholm-Usserød
Holstebro
Frem
Ishøj
Ringsted