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ASA Aarhus v Sundby

ASA Aarhus
1–2Full time
Sundby

3. Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
ASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby ASA AARHUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ASA Aarhus win47%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.792
The market’s Brier score0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ASA Aarhus win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: ASA Aarhus 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ASA Aarhus v Sundby
  4. 38′Sundby find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
  5. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' ASA Aarhus 0–1 Sundby
  6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
  7. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Sundby win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was ASA Aarhus win 15%)
  8. 39′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
  9. 39′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–60
  10. 41′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  11. 45′HALF-TIME ASA Aarhus 0–1 Sundby
  12. 46′SECOND HALF ASA Aarhus 0–1 Sundby
  13. 50′Sundby find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
  14. 51′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–65
  15. 56′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  16. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  17. 62′A goal for ASA Aarhus on 62′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–49–21
  18. 62′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–49–21
  19. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' ASA Aarhus 1–1 Sundby
  20. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 30% now
  21. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Sundby win 21%)
  22. 63′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–20
  23. 63′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 29–50–20
  24. 71′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
  25. 76′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  26. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  27. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' ASA Aarhus win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  28. 89′Sundby score on 89′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  29. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' ASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby
  30. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Sundby win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
  31. 90′We said ASA Aarhus at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  32. 90′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  33. FTFULL TIME ASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby
  34. FTASA Aarhus 1–2 Sundby · ASA Aarhus win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASA Aarhus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASA Aarhus 47%, draw 24%, Sundby 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on ASA Aarhus v SundbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ASA Aarhus win47%
Draw24%
Sundby win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASA Aarhus

Sundby

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6ASA Aarhus11−116
11Sundby11−310

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asa aarhus winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market46%
Us47%
Market46%

We make ASA Aarhus a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ASA Aarhus v Sundby1.67 – 1.23
Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 16 v 106 v 11
The market · ASA Aarhus win46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 13:24
Our probability · ASA Aarhus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ASA Aarhus win47%46%+1
Draw24%25%−1
Sundby win29%28%+1
Over 2.5 goals55%59%−4
Both teams to score56%61%−5
Over 1.5 goals78%79%−1
Over 3.5 goals33%38%−5
ASA Aarhus or draw71%72%−1
ASA Aarhus clean sheet30%––
Sundby clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 5.8 7.0 4.3 1 9.3 11.1 6.8 2.8 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.3 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ASA Aarhus down, Sundby across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsSUN 1–0 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 5 Sept

ASA AARHUS

LWLWLL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

SUNDBY

WLWWLL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Holbæk B&I11+823
2Brønshøj11+1022
3Vanløse11+720
4FC Helsingor11+520
5Næsby11+417
6ASA Aarhus11−116
7Hørsholm-Usserød11+315
8Holstebro11−813
9Frem11012
10Ishøj11−911
11Sundby11−310
12Ringsted11−165

The competition's standings before kick-off.