ASA Aarhus v Frem prediction · 3. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ASA AarhusDrawFrem

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ASA Aarhus 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASA Aarhus are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASA Aarhus 40%, draw 25%, Frem 35%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on ASA Aarhus v FremBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

ASA Aarhus win40%

Draw25%

Frem win35%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASA Aarhus

Frem

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

Last match: 23 Oct · the Danish 3. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	ASA Aarhus	13	−3	16
10	Frem	13	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asa aarhus winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make ASA Aarhus a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASA Aarhus v Frem~~1.45 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASA Aarhus win	40%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Frem win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
ASA Aarhus or draw	65%	–	–
ASA Aarhus clean sheet	27%	–	–
Frem clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 8.4 5.6 2.5 1 9.1 11.7 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.4 5.5 2.5 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASA Aarhus down, Frem across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 3. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.4% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASA Aarhus at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Frem away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for ASA Aarhus, 1.33 for Frem. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FRE 3–1 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division this season · since 19 Sept

ASA AARHUS

LWLLLL1–5 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

FREM

LLDWDD2–3 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Holbæk B&I	13	+13	29
2	Brønshøj	13	+11	25
3	Vanløse	13	+8	24
4	FC Helsingor	13	+4	21
5	Hørsholm-Usserød	13	+7	19
6	Næsby	13	+3	18
7	Sundby	13	0	16
8	ASA Aarhus	13	−3	16
9	Ishøj	13	−8	15
10	Frem	13	0	14
11	Holstebro	13	−16	13
12	Ringsted	13	−19	6