VSK Århus v Naestved prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

VSK Århus 2–2 Naestved VSK ÅRHUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VSK Århus win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VSK Århus win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: VSK Århus was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF VSK Århus v Naestved
15′Naestved find the net on 15′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' VSK Århus 0–1 Naestved
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' VSK Århus win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Naestved win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was VSK Århus win 40%)
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Naestved
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' VSK Århus win: 42% at kick-off, 40% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' VSK Århus win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Naestved win 60%)
36′VSK Århus find the net on 36′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–8
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' VSK Århus 1–0 Naestved
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' VSK Århus win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
37′We published VSK Århus at 42%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–8
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
45′HALF-TIME VSK Århus 1–0 Naestved
46′We published VSK Århus at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
46′SECOND HALF VSK Århus 1–0 Naestved
63′We published VSK Århus at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' VSK Århus win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
71′A goal for Naestved on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–63–16
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' VSK Århus 1–1 Naestved
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' VSK Århus win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was VSK Århus win 84%)
72′We said VSK Århus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–65–16
73′We said VSK Århus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
74′Naestved score on 73′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
74′We said VSK Århus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' VSK Århus 1–2 Naestved
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' VSK Århus win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Naestved win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 66%)
90′VSK Århus find the net on 89′. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–92–4
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 4–92–4
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' VSK Århus 2–2 Naestved
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Naestved win 95%)
FTFULL TIME VSK Århus 2–2 Naestved
FTVSK Århus 2–2 Naestved · VSK Århus win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VSK Århus are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VSK Århus 42%, draw 27%, Naestved 31%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on VSK Århus v NaestvedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

VSK Århus win42%

Draw27%

Naestved win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VSK Århus

Naestved

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	VSK Århus	12	+5	19
4	Naestved	12	+3	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vsk århus winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make VSK Århus a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VSK Århus v Naestved~~1.36 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 19~~3 v 4

~~The market · VSK Århus win~~34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VSK Århus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VSK Århus win	42%	34%	+8
Draw	27%	27%	0
Naestved win	31%	39%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%	−10
Both teams to score	50%	60%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	34%	−10
VSK Århus or draw	69%	61%	+8
VSK Århus clean sheet	33%	–	–
Naestved clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 9.4 5.3 1 11.4 12.6 7.0 2.7 2 7.7 8.5 4.7 3 3.6 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VSK Århus down, Naestved across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 946 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VSK Århus at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Naestved away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for VSK Århus, 1.12 for Naestved. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NAE 0–2 VSK · NAE 2–2 VSK · VSK 1–3 NAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 13 Sept

VSK ÅRHUS

DDWLLD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

NAESTVED

WDDDDW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	13	+15	25
3	VSK Århus	12	+5	19
4	Naestved	12	+3	19
5	Middelfart	12	+6	18
6	B 93	12	+4	18
7	Skive	12	0	17
8	Fremad Amager	13	−6	17
9	HIK	13	−7	15
10	Brabrand	12	−6	12
11	Thisted FC	12	−13	6
12	FA 2000	13	−16	6