Thisted FC v VSK Århus prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Thisted FC 2–2 VSK Århus VSK ÅRHUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VSK Århus win~~37%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with VSK Århus just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Thisted FC 35%, draw 28%, VSK Århus 37%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Thisted FC v VSK ÅrhusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Thisted FC win35%

Draw28%

VSK Århus win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thisted FC

VSK Århus

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	VSK Århus	11	+5	18
12	Thisted FC	11	−13	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vsk århus winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market41%

Us37%

~~Market~~41%

We make VSK Århus a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thisted FC v VSK Århus~~1.13 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 18~~12 v 5

~~The market · VSK Århus win~~41% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VSK Århus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thisted FC win	35%	32%	+3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
VSK Århus win	37%	41%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	56%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−9
Thisted FC or draw	63%	59%	+4
Thisted FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
VSK Århus clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 11.7 6.9 2.8 1 11.1 13.0 7.7 3.1 2 6.3 7.3 4.3 3 2.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thisted FC down, VSK Århus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 943 2. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thisted FC at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). VSK Århus away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Thisted FC, 1.19 for VSK Århus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VSK 3–1 THI · VSK 0–0 THI · THI 2–2 VSK · VSK 3–2 THI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept

THISTED FC

LLWLLD0–3 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

VSK ÅRHUS

LDDWLL0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	12	+11	22
3	Naestved	12	+3	19
4	Middelfart	12	+6	18
5	VSK Århus	11	+5	18
6	B 93	12	+4	18
7	Skive	12	0	17
8	Fremad Amager	12	−2	17
9	Brabrand	12	−6	12
10	HIK	12	−9	12
11	FA 2000	12	−14	6
12	Thisted FC	11	−13	5