Skive v VSK Århus prediction · 2. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SkiveDrawVSK Århus

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Skive 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Skive just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Skive 37%, draw 28%, VSK Århus 35%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Skive v VSK ÅrhusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Skive win37%

Draw28%

VSK Århus win35%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skive

VSK Århus

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	VSK Århus	13	+5	20
7	Skive	13	0	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skive winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Skive a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skive v VSK Århus~~1.21 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 20~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skive win

Published at 36%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skive win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
VSK Århus win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Skive or draw	65%	–	–
Skive clean sheet	31%	–	–
VSK Århus clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.5 10.9 6.4 2.5 1 11.2 12.9 7.5 3.0 2 6.7 7.7 4.5 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skive down, VSK Århus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 949 2. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skive at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). VSK Århus away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Skive, 1.17 for VSK Århus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VSK 1–0 SKI · SKI 1–1 VSK · VSK 0–1 SKI · SKI 1–1 VSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 18 Sept

SKIVE

WLWLWD2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–3

VSK ÅRHUS

DWLLDD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	13	+15	25
3	VSK Århus	13	+5	20
4	Naestved	13	+3	20
5	Middelfart	13	+6	19
6	B 93	13	+3	18
7	Skive	13	0	18
8	Fremad Amager	13	−6	17
9	Brabrand	13	−5	15
10	HIK	13	−7	15
11	Thisted FC	12	−13	6
12	FA 2000	13	−16	6