Skive v FA 2000 prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Skive 2–0 FA 2000 SKIVE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skive win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.398

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.376

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skive win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Skive was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Skive v FA 2000
19′Skive score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′We published Skive at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Skive 1–0 FA 2000
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
26′Skive find the net on 25′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
26′We published Skive at 48%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Skive 2–0 FA 2000
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 27' Skive
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Skive 2–0 FA 2000
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 93% now
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Skive
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
39′Skive find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Skive 2–0 FA 2000
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 94% now
44′We published Skive at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Skive 2–0 FA 2000
47′SECOND HALF Skive 2–0 FA 2000
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Skive win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
81′We published Skive at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Skive 2–0 FA 2000
FTSkive 2–0 FA 2000 · Skive win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skive are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skive 48%, draw 25%, FA 2000 26%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Skive v FA 2000Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skive win48%

Draw25%

FA 2000 win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skive

FA 2000

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Skive	11	−2	14
11	FA 2000	11	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skive winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Skive a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skive v FA 2000~~1.55 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 6~~8 v 11

~~The market · Skive win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skive win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skive win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
FA 2000 win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Skive or draw	74%	76%	−2
Skive clean sheet	35%	–	–
FA 2000 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 7.8 4.2 1 11.3 11.9 6.3 2.3 2 8.8 9.1 4.8 3 4.6 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skive down, FA 2000 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 940 2. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skive at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FA 2000 away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Skive, 1.06 for FA 2000. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FA 2–2 SKI · SKI 3–2 FA · FA 3–2 SKI · FA 1–0 SKI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept

SKIVE

DDWLWL2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

FA 2000

DLLLLD2–2 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	11	+11	21
3	Naestved	12	+3	19
4	VSK Århus	11	+5	18
5	B 93	12	+4	18
6	Middelfart	11	+6	17
7	Fremad Amager	12	−2	17
8	Skive	11	−2	14
9	Brabrand	11	−5	12
10	HIK	11	−10	9
11	FA 2000	11	−12	6
12	Thisted FC	11	−13	5