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Roskilde v Skive

Roskilde
3–0Full time
Skive

2. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Roskilde 3–0 Skive ROSKILDE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Roskilde win53%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.328
The market’s Brier score0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Roskilde win at 53%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Roskilde v Skive
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Roskilde 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
  4. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Roskilde 1–0 Skive
  5. 23′A goal for Roskilde on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–6
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Roskilde win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 43′We said Roskilde at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  8. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Roskilde 1–0 Skive
  10. 50′SECOND HALF Roskilde 1–0 Skive
  11. 67′We said Roskilde at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  12. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Roskilde win: 53% at kick-off, 85% now
  13. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Roskilde 2–0 Skive
  14. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Roskilde 3–0 Skive
  15. 88′Roskilde find the net on 74′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  16. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Roskilde win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
  17. FTFULL TIME Roskilde 3–0 Skive
  18. FTRoskilde 3–0 Skive · Roskilde win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Roskilde win53%
Draw25%
Skive win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roskilde winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
53% The market51%
Us53%
Market51%

We make Roskilde a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 11:17
Our probability · roskilde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Roskilde win53%51%+2
Draw25%24%+1
Skive win22%25%−3
Over 2.5 goals48%56%−8
Both teams to score49%55%−6
Over 1.5 goals73%77%−4
Over 3.5 goals26%35%−8
Roskilde or draw78%75%+3
Roskilde clean sheet39%––
Skive clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%
0123450 7.7 7.1 3.4 1 12.2 11.6 5.5 2 10.0 9.3 4.5 3 5.5 5.1 2.5 4 2.3 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Roskilde down, Skive across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored8 of 8
Last meetingsSKI 1–1 ROS · ROS 1–1 SKI · SKI 1–2 ROS · ROS 1–1 SKI

Form · last six in 2. Division

ROSKILDE

DWDWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

SKIVE

LDDWLW1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nykobing FC10+1422
2Roskilde10+818
3VSK Århus10+718
4Middelfart10+817
5B 9310+315
6Naestved10+215
7Skive10+114
8Fremad Amager10−214
9Brabrand10−69
10HIK10−108
11FA 200010−125
12Thisted FC10−134

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.