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Roskilde v Fremad Amager

Roskilde
4–0Full time
Fremad Amager

2. Division · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Roskilde 4–0 Fremad Amager ROSKILDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Roskilde win53%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.330
The market’s Brier score0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Roskilde win at 53%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Roskilde v Fremad Amager
  3. 5′Little has changed for our model: Roskilde 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
  4. 23′A goal for Roskilde on 19′. 0–0 · 48–29–23
  5. 24′We said Roskilde at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–7
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 19' Roskilde 1–0 Fremad Amager
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Roskilde win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Roskilde 1–0 Fremad Amager
  10. 48′We said Roskilde at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  11. 50′Roskilde find the net on 50′. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  12. 51′We said Roskilde at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  13. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Roskilde 2–0 Fremad Amager
  14. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Roskilde win: 53% at kick-off, 96% now
  15. 55′SECOND HALF Roskilde 1–0 Fremad Amager
  16. 76′A goal for Roskilde on 76′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  17. 76′We said Roskilde at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 76′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Roskilde 3–0 Fremad Amager
  20. 95′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Roskilde 4–0 Fremad Amager
  22. 96′Roskilde score on 90′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  23. FTFULL TIME Roskilde 4–0 Fremad Amager
  24. FTRoskilde 4–0 Fremad Amager · Roskilde win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roskilde are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roskilde 53%, draw 24%, Fremad Amager 23%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Roskilde v Fremad AmagerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Roskilde win53%
Draw24%
Fremad Amager win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roskilde

Fremad Amager

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Roskilde12+1122
8Fremad Amager12−217

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roskilde winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
53% The market55%
Us53%
Market55%

We make Roskilde a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Roskilde v Fremad Amager1.70 – 1.02
Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 11 SeptW3 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 22 v 172 v 8
The market · Roskilde win55% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:39
Our probability · Roskilde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Roskilde win53%55%−2
Draw24%24%0
Fremad Amager win23%21%+2
Over 2.5 goals51%59%−8
Both teams to score52%59%−7
Over 1.5 goals75%81%−6
Over 3.5 goals29%39%−10
Roskilde or draw77%79%−2
Roskilde clean sheet36%––
Fremad Amager clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 6.8 6.8 3.5 1 11.2 11.3 5.8 2.0 2 9.4 9.5 4.8 3 5.4 5.4 2.8 4 2.3 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Roskilde down, Fremad Amager across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2020/21
Goals a meeting2.17
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsFRE 1–1 ROS · ROS 2–0 FRE · FRE 2–1 ROS · ROS 2–0 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

ROSKILDE

DWDWWD1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–3

FREMAD AMAGER

WDWLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nykobing FC12+1525
2Roskilde12+1122
3VSK Århus12+519
4Naestved12+319
5Middelfart12+618
6B 9312+418
7Skive12017
8Fremad Amager12−217
9Brabrand12−612
10HIK12−912
11Thisted FC12−136
12FA 200012−146

The competition's standings before kick-off.