Nykobing FC v VSK Århus prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Nykobing FC 3–1 VSK Århus NYKOBING FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nykobing FC win~~41%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.530

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nykobing FC win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Nykobing FC 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–34
3′Little has changed for our model: Nykobing FC 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–34
24′A goal for Nykobing FC on 24′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
25′Nykobing FC find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–20–11 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
45′A goal for Nykobing FC on 30′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nykobing FC win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Nykobing FC 2–0 VSK Århus
46′SECOND HALF Nykobing FC 2–0 VSK Århus
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Nykobing FC 2–1 VSK Århus
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Nykobing FC 3–1 VSK Århus
FTFULL TIME Nykobing FC 3–1 VSK Århus
FTNykobing FC 3–1 VSK Århus · Nykobing FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nykobing FC win41%

Draw25%

VSK Århus win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nykobing FC

VSK Århus

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	10	+14	22
3	VSK Århus	10	+7	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nykobing fc winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

41% The market57%

Us41%

~~Market~~57%

We make Nykobing FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nykobing fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nykobing FC win	41%	57%	−16
Draw	25%	22%	+3
VSK Århus win	34%	21%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	52%	62%	−10
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	82%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	41%	−11
Nykobing FC or draw	66%	79%	−13
Nykobing FC clean sheet	28%	–	–
VSK Århus clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.7 8.3 5.4 2.4 1 9.2 11.9 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.5 5.5 2.4 3 3.3 4.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nykobing FC down, VSK Århus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 937 2. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nykobing FC at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). VSK Århus away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Nykobing FC, 1.30 for VSK Århus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Division

NYKOBING FC

DWWWDD2–2 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

VSK ÅRHUS

DLDDWL0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	10	+14	22
2	Roskilde	11	+11	21
3	VSK Århus	10	+7	18
4	B 93	11	+5	18
5	Middelfart	11	+6	17
6	Naestved	11	+2	16
7	Skive	11	−2	14
8	Fremad Amager	11	−3	14
9	Brabrand	11	−5	12
10	HIK	11	−10	9
11	FA 2000	11	−12	6
12	Thisted FC	11	−13	5