Nykobing FC v Thisted FC prediction · 2. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nykobing FCDrawThisted FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nykobing FC 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nykobing FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nykobing FC 50%, draw 23%, Thisted FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Nykobing FC v Thisted FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nykobing FC win50%

Draw23%

Thisted FC win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nykobing FC

Thisted FC

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · DBU Pokalen

Last match: 18 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nykobing fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

50% The market68%

Us50%

~~Market~~68%

We make Nykobing FC a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nykobing FC v Thisted FC~~1.75 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 6~~1 v 11

~~The market · Nykobing FC win~~68% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nykobing FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nykobing FC win	50%	68%	−18
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Thisted FC win	27%	14%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	56%	63%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	83%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Nykobing FC or draw	73%	86%	−13
Nykobing FC clean sheet	30%	–	–
Thisted FC clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.5 6.4 3.9 1 9.2 10.9 6.5 2.6 2 7.9 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.6 5.4 3.3 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nykobing FC down, Thisted FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 949 2. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nykobing FC at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Thisted FC away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Nykobing FC, 1.20 for Thisted FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~THI 0–3 NYK · NYK 1–2 THI · THI 1–1 NYK · NYK 2–2 THI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 13 Sept

NYKOBING FC

WWDDWL3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–3

THISTED FC

LWLLDD1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	13	+15	25
3	VSK Århus	13	+5	20
4	Naestved	13	+3	20
5	Middelfart	13	+6	19
6	B 93	13	+3	18
7	Skive	13	0	18
8	Fremad Amager	13	−6	17
9	Brabrand	13	−5	15
10	HIK	13	−7	15
11	Thisted FC	12	−13	6
12	FA 2000	13	−16	6