Naestved v B 93 prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Naestved 2–1 B 93 B 93 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said B 93 win~~42%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.677

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said B 93 win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: B 93 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
1′KICK-OFF Naestved v B 93
13′Naestved score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 60–22–18
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Naestved 1–0 B 93
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' B 93 win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Naestved win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was B 93 win 18%)
14′We said B 93 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–22–18
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–15
31′We said B 93 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
39′Naestved find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Naestved 2–0 B 93
40′We said B 93 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 88–9–3
43′Naestved score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–23–11 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' B 93 win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
44′We said B 93 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 66–23–11 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' B 93 win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
45′HALF-TIME Naestved 2–0 B 93
46′SECOND HALF Naestved 2–0 B 93
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 91–7–2
66′A goal for B 93 on 66′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–20–5
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Naestved 2–1 B 93
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 76–20–4
FTFULL TIME Naestved 2–1 B 93
FTNaestved 2–1 B 93 · B 93 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

B 93 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Naestved 34%, draw 25%, B 93 42%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Naestved v B 93Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Naestved win34%

Draw25%

B 93 win42%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naestved

B 93

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	B 93	11	+5	18
6	Naestved	11	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · b 93 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make B 93 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naestved v B 93~~1.34 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 18~~6 v 3

~~The market · B 93 win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · B 93 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naestved win	34%	35%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
B 93 win	42%	39%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Naestved or draw	58%	61%	−3
Naestved clean sheet	22%	–	–
B 93 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 8.7 6.6 3.4 1 7.7 11.5 8.6 4.4 2 5.2 7.6 5.7 2.9 3 2.4 3.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naestved down, B 93 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 2. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naestved at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). B 93 away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Naestved, 1.53 for B 93. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~B 1–1 NAE · NAE 1–0 B · B 2–0 NAE · B 0–0 NAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 4 Sept

NAESTVED

DWDDDD1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

B 93

DDLWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	11	+16	25
2	Roskilde	11	+11	21
3	B 93	11	+5	18
4	VSK Århus	11	+5	18
5	Middelfart	11	+6	17
6	Naestved	11	+2	16
7	Skive	11	−2	14
8	Fremad Amager	11	−3	14
9	Brabrand	11	−5	12
10	HIK	11	−10	9
11	FA 2000	11	−12	6
12	Thisted FC	11	−13	5