Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 2. Division › Middelfart v Roskilde

Back
Denmark flag

Middelfart v Roskilde

Middelfart
3–3Full time
Roskilde

2. Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Middelfart 3–3 Roskilde MIDDELFART WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Middelfart win41%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.821
The market’s Brier score0.794

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Middelfart win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Middelfart 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Middelfart v Roskilde
  4. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Middelfart win 33%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Middelfart 0–0 Roskilde
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Middelfart 0–0 Roskilde
  7. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  8. 55′We said Middelfart at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
  9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–46–25
  10. 58′A goal for Middelfart on 57′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
  11. 58′We said Middelfart at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
  12. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Middelfart 1–0 Roskilde
  13. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
  14. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Middelfart win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
  15. 62′Roskilde score on 61′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–52–22
  16. 62′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 26–52–22
  17. 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Middelfart 1–1 Roskilde
  18. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 26% now
  19. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Middelfart win 26%)
  20. 64′Roskilde find the net on 64′. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
  21. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Middelfart 1–2 Roskilde
  22. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
  23. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Roskilde win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
  24. 65′We said Middelfart at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  25. 65′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  26. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  27. 87′A goal for Middelfart on 86′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 6–88–6
  28. 87′We said Middelfart at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 6–88–6
  29. 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Middelfart 2–2 Roskilde
  30. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
  31. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Roskilde win 6%)
  32. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–89–5
  33. 92′Middelfart score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
  34. 92′We said Middelfart at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–2 · 97–3–0
  35. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Middelfart 3–2 Roskilde
  36. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 97% now
  37. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Middelfart win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  38. 93′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  39. 93′Roskilde find the net on 90′. 3–3. 3–3 · 2–96–2
  40. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Middelfart 3–3 Roskilde
  41. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Middelfart win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
  42. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Middelfart win 2%)
  43. 94′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–97–1
  44. FTFULL TIME Middelfart 3–3 Roskilde
  45. FTMiddelfart 3–3 Roskilde · Middelfart win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Middelfart are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Middelfart 41%, draw 26%, Roskilde 33%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Middelfart v RoskildeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Middelfart win41%
Draw26%
Roskilde win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Middelfart

Roskilde

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Roskilde11+1121
6Middelfart11+617

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · middelfart winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market39%
Us41%
Market39%

We make Middelfart a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Middelfart v Roskilde1.40 – 1.24
Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 SeptW1 D4 L1 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 17 v 216 v 2
The market · Middelfart win39% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 12:16
Our probability · Middelfart win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Middelfart win41%39%+2
Draw26%27%−1
Roskilde win33%33%0
Over 2.5 goals49%54%−5
Both teams to score53%58%−5
Over 1.5 goals74%76%−2
Over 3.5 goals27%34%−7
Middelfart or draw67%67%0
Middelfart clean sheet30%––
Roskilde clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.5 8.8 5.5 2.3 1 10.0 12.3 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Middelfart down, Roskilde across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020/21
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.51 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsROS 1–1 MID · ROS 0–0 MID · MID 2–0 ROS · ROS 3–1 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept

MIDDELFART

DDDDWL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

ROSKILDE

WDWDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nykobing FC12+1525
2Roskilde11+1121
3Naestved12+319
4VSK Århus11+518
5B 9312+418
6Middelfart11+617
7Fremad Amager12−217
8Skive11−214
9Brabrand11−512
10HIK11−109
11FA 200011−126
12Thisted FC11−135

The competition's standings before kick-off.