Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
Back

Home › Football › 2. Division › HIK v Thisted FC

Denmark flag

HIK v Thisted FC

HIK
1–1Full time
Thisted FC

2. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
HIK 1–1 Thisted FC THISTED FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Thisted FC win42%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.834
The market’s Brier score0.812

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Thisted FC win at 42%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF HIK v Thisted FC
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: Thisted FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
  4. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' HIK 1–0 Thisted FC
  5. 23′HIK find the net on 9′. 0–0. 0–0 · 31–31–39
  6. 45′Thisted FC find the net on 45′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
  7. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' HIK 0–1 Thisted FC
  8. 45′HALF-TIME HIK 0–1 Thisted FC
  9. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Thisted FC win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
  10. 46′SECOND HALF HIK 0–1 Thisted FC
  11. 59′We published Thisted FC at 42%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–19–77
  12. 80′A goal for HIK on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–76–13
  13. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' HIK 1–1 Thisted FC
  14. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Thisted FC win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
  15. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Thisted FC win 13%)
  16. FTFULL TIME HIK 1–1 Thisted FC
  17. FTHIK 1–1 Thisted FC · Thisted FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

HIK win32%
Draw26%
Thisted FC win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thisted fc winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
42% The market30%
Us42%
Market30%

We make Thisted FC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:189 OCT 07:19
Our probability · thisted fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
HIK win32%44%−11
Draw26%27%−1
Thisted FC win42%30%+12
Over 2.5 goals51%52%−2
Both teams to score54%55%−1
Over 1.5 goals75%74%+1
Over 3.5 goals29%31%−2
HIK or draw58%70%−12
HIK clean sheet24%––
Thisted FC clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 7.0 9.7 7.1 3.5 1 8.4 12.1 8.6 4.2 2 5.2 7.4 5.4 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+HIK down, Thisted FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.56 of 16
Both scored5 of 16
Last meetingsHIK 0–2 THI · THI 4–0 HIK · THI 3–0 HIK · HIK 1–1 THI

Form · last six in 2. Division

HIK

LWLLDL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

THISTED FC

DLLWLL2–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nykobing FC10+1422
2Roskilde10+818
3VSK Århus10+718
4Middelfart10+817
5B 9310+315
6Naestved10+215
7Skive10+114
8Fremad Amager10−214
9Brabrand10−69
10HIK10−108
11FA 200010−125
12Thisted FC10−134

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.