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FA 2000 v Naestved

FA 2000

1–1Full time

Naestved

2. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

FA 2000 1–1 Naestved NAESTVED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Naestved win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.856

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.837

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naestved win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF FA 2000 v Naestved
3′Little has changed for our model: Naestved 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' FA 2000 0–1 Naestved
43′38′ and it is 0–1: Naestved have scored. 0–1 · 8–20–73
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Naestved win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME FA 2000 0–1 Naestved
47′We said Naestved at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 7–20–74
47′SECOND HALF FA 2000 0–1 Naestved
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Naestved win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
68′We said Naestved at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
90′We said Naestved at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Naestved win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' FA 2000 1–1 Naestved
FTFULL TIME FA 2000 1–1 Naestved
FTFA 2000 1–1 Naestved · Naestved win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FA 2000 win31%

Draw25%

Naestved win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naestved winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Naestved a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · naestved win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FA 2000 win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Naestved win	44%	47%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
FA 2000 or draw	56%	53%	+4
FA 2000 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Naestved clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 9.2 7.1 3.7 1 7.6 11.5 8.8 4.6 2 4.9 7.3 5.6 2.9 3 2.1 3.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FA 2000 down, Naestved across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 932 2. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FA 2000 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Naestved away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for FA 2000, 1.56 for Naestved. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FA 2–1 NAE · NAE 2–1 FA

Form · last six in 2. Division

FA 2000

DDLLLL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–1

NAESTVED

WDWDDD2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	10	+14	22
2	Roskilde	10	+8	18
3	VSK Århus	10	+7	18
4	Middelfart	10	+8	17
5	B 93	10	+3	15
6	Naestved	10	+2	15
7	Skive	10	+1	14
8	Fremad Amager	10	−2	14
9	Brabrand	10	−6	9
10	HIK	10	−10	8
11	FA 2000	10	−12	5
12	Thisted FC	10	−13	4