FA 2000 v HIK prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

FA 2000 0–2 HIK FA 2000 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FA 2000 win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.739

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FA 2000 win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: FA 2000 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF FA 2000 v HIK
43′A goal for HIK on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' FA 2000 0–1 HIK
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FA 2000 win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' HIK win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was FA 2000 win 37%)
44′We said FA 2000 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–24–63
45′HALF-TIME FA 2000 0–1 HIK
46′SECOND HALF FA 2000 0–1 HIK
55′We said FA 2000 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' FA 2000 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said FA 2000 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
94′HIK score on 90′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' FA 2000 0–2 HIK
FTFULL TIME FA 2000 0–2 HIK
FTFA 2000 0–2 HIK · FA 2000 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FA 2000 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FA 2000 45%, draw 24%, HIK 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FA 2000 v HIKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FA 2000 win45%

Draw24%

HIK win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FA 2000

HIK

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	HIK	12	−9	12
12	FA 2000	12	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fa 2000 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make FA 2000 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FA 2000 v HIK~~1.66 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~12 v 10

~~The market · FA 2000 win~~38% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FA 2000 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FA 2000 win	45%	38%	+7
Draw	24%	27%	−3
HIK win	31%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	51%	+6
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	35%	31%	+4
FA 2000 or draw	69%	65%	+4
FA 2000 clean sheet	27%	–	–
HIK clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 6.8 4.5 2.0 1 8.4 10.9 7.2 3.2 2 6.9 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 3.9 5.0 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FA 2000 down, HIK across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 944 2. Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FA 2000 at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). HIK away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for FA 2000, 1.33 for HIK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HIK 2–1 FA · FA 0–1 HIK · HIK 1–1 FA · HIK 4–2 FA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

FA 2000

LLLLDL1–3 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

HIK

LLDLDW1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	12	+11	22
3	VSK Århus	12	+5	19
4	Naestved	12	+3	19
5	Middelfart	12	+6	18
6	B 93	12	+4	18
7	Skive	12	0	17
8	Fremad Amager	12	−2	17
9	Brabrand	12	−6	12
10	HIK	12	−9	12
11	Thisted FC	12	−13	6
12	FA 2000	12	−14	6