Brabrand v HIK prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Brabrand 0–1 HIK BRABRAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brabrand win~~50%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.852

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.866

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brabrand win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brabrand was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Brabrand v HIK
34′Brabrand find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–7
34′We published Brabrand at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–7
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Brabrand 1–0 HIK
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Brabrand win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' Brabrand
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Brabrand win: 50% at kick-off, 42% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Brabrand 1–0 HIK
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Brabrand win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 41' Brabrand
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Brabrand win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Brabrand 0–0 HIK
46′SECOND HALF Brabrand 0–0 HIK
47′We said Brabrand at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–39–23
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Brabrand win 36%)
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–44–21
56′We said Brabrand at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
58′HIK find the net on 57′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
58′We said Brabrand at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Brabrand 0–1 HIK
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Brabrand win: 50% at kick-off, 9% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' HIK win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
70′We said Brabrand at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Brabrand win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Brabrand 0–1 HIK
FTBrabrand 0–1 HIK · Brabrand win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brabrand are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brabrand 50%, draw 24%, HIK 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Brabrand v HIKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brabrand win50%

Draw24%

HIK win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brabrand

HIK

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 2. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Brabrand	11	−5	12
10	HIK	11	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brabrand winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:43 · locked at kick-off

50% The market49%

Us50%

~~Market~~49%

We make Brabrand a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brabrand v HIK~~1.67 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~9 v 10

~~The market · Brabrand win~~49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brabrand win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brabrand win	50%	49%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
HIK win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Brabrand or draw	74%	75%	−1
Brabrand clean sheet	32%	–	–
HIK clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 6.9 3.9 1 10.0 11.4 6.4 2.5 2 8.4 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.7 5.2 3.0 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brabrand down, HIK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 940 2. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.9% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brabrand at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). HIK away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Brabrand, 1.14 for HIK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HIK 2–1 BRA · BRA 2–0 HIK · HIK 4–0 BRA · HIK 0–1 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Division this season · since 5 Sept

BRABRAND

LDLDWW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

HIK

WLLDLD2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	12	+15	25
2	Roskilde	11	+11	21
3	Naestved	12	+3	19
4	VSK Århus	11	+5	18
5	B 93	12	+4	18
6	Middelfart	11	+6	17
7	Fremad Amager	12	−2	17
8	Skive	11	−2	14
9	Brabrand	11	−5	12
10	HIK	11	−10	9
11	FA 2000	11	−12	6
12	Thisted FC	11	−13	5