Home › Football › 2. Division › Brabrand v Fremad Amager

Brabrand v Fremad Amager

Brabrand

1–0Full time

Fremad Amager

2. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Brabrand 1–0 Fremad Amager FREMAD AMAGER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fremad Amager win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.635

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fremad Amager win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF Brabrand v Fremad Amager
4′Much as we predicted: Fremad Amager was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Brabrand 1–0 Fremad Amager
44′A goal for Brabrand on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–9
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Fremad Amager win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Brabrand win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Fremad Amager win 9%)
45′HALF-TIME Brabrand 1–0 Fremad Amager
46′We said Fremad Amager at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–23–8
46′SECOND HALF Brabrand 1–0 Fremad Amager
68′We said Fremad Amager at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
FTFULL TIME Brabrand 1–0 Fremad Amager
FTBrabrand 1–0 Fremad Amager · Fremad Amager win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brabrand win33%

Draw28%

Fremad Amager win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fremad amager winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Fremad Amager a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fremad amager win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brabrand win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	28%	26%	+1
Fremad Amager win	39%	38%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Brabrand or draw	61%	62%	−1
Brabrand clean sheet	29%	–	–
Fremad Amager clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 11.4 7.2 3.1 1 10.3 12.9 8.0 3.4 2 5.9 7.3 4.6 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brabrand down, Fremad Amager across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 932 2. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brabrand at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fremad Amager away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Brabrand, 1.26 for Fremad Amager. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRA 1–2 FRE · FRE 1–0 BRA · FRE 1–0 BRA · BRA 2–2 FRE

Form · last six in 2. Division

BRABRAND

DLDLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

FREMAD AMAGER

DDWDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nykobing FC	10	+14	22
2	Roskilde	10	+8	18
3	VSK Århus	10	+7	18
4	Middelfart	10	+8	17
5	B 93	10	+3	15
6	Naestved	10	+2	15
7	Skive	10	+1	14
8	Fremad Amager	10	−2	14
9	Brabrand	10	−6	9
10	HIK	10	−10	8
11	FA 2000	10	−12	5
12	Thisted FC	10	−13	4