Vendsyssel FF v HB Koge prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Vendsyssel FF 0–2 HB Koge VENDSYSSEL FF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vendsyssel FF win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.682

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vendsyssel FF win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Vendsyssel FF v HB Koge
2′Much as we predicted: Vendsyssel FF was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–32
3′Much as we predicted: Vendsyssel FF was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
6′🟨 YELLOW · 7' A. N. Atlason · Vendsyssel FF
33′🟨 YELLOW · 34' B. Konteh · Vendsyssel FF
45′HB Koge ahead on 45′ through M. Jensen. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–66
45′We said Vendsyssel FF at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–66
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Vendsyssel FF 0–0 HB Koge · M. Jensen
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Vendsyssel FF win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' HB Koge win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Vendsyssel FF win 11%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Vendsyssel FF win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
45′SECOND HALF Vendsyssel FF 0–1 HB Koge
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Vendsyssel FF 0–1 HB Koge · M. Jensen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Vendsyssel FF win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Vendsyssel FF win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
47′HB Koge ahead on 45′ through M. Jensen. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–66
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Vendsyssel FF win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Vendsyssel FF win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
49′We said Vendsyssel FF at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–66
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Vendsyssel FF 0–1 HB Koge · M. Warming
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Vendsyssel FF 0–2 HB Koge · M. Warming
54′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Vendsyssel FF · On: S. Lodberg · Off: H. Tangen
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Vendsyssel FF · On: J. Sommer · Off: B. Clemmensen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vendsyssel FF · On: F. Mortensen · Off: A. Olsen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vendsyssel FF · On: S. Simpson · Off: A. N. Atlason
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' HB Koge · On: V. Sorensen · Off: S. Hald
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' HB Koge · On: C. Jensen Tue · Off: M. Warming
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' G. Larsen · HB Koge
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' HB Koge · On: M. Romer · Off: G. Larsen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' HB Koge · On: M. Romer · Off: G. Larsen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vendsyssel FF · On: A. Rise · Off: S. Michael
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' HB Koge · On: N. Stolshoj · Off: F. Isaki
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' HB Koge · On: N. Jakobsen · Off: M. Jensen
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' J. Sommer · Vendsyssel FF
FTFULL TIME Vendsyssel FF 0–2 HB Koge
FTVendsyssel FF 0–2 HB Koge · Vendsyssel FF win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vendsyssel FF win42%

Draw26%

HB Koge win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueNord Energi Arena

RefereeJ. Bogelund

Line-ups

Vendsyssel FF

HB Koge

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vendsyssel FF

HB Koge

21Days since last match20

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vendsyssel FF	9	−4	10
11	HB Koge	9	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vendsyssel FF

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Schulz

23 A. Olsen

21 B. Clemmensen

4 B. Konteh

73 M. Lauritsen

30 A. N. Atlason

8 S. Michael

15 H. Tangen

19 E. Pedersen

12 A. C. Vendelbo

9 L. Steffensen

Coach · Kim Engstrom

Substitutes

16 · M. Nielsen

27 · J. Sommer

14 · F. Mortensen

18 · M. Holt

31 · A. Rise

22 · P. Williams

10 · S. Simpson

17 · S. Lodberg

5 · S. Roma

HB Koge

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Sommergaard

23 M. Westergren

22 M. Jakobsen

2 L. Bust

4 S. Hald

28 G. Larsen

7 M. Jensen

6 R. Brodersen

25 F. Isaki

9 T. Thomsen

11 M. Warming

Coach · Nicklas Pedersen

Substitutes

16 · C. Mols

5 · G. Culhaci

14 · V. Sorensen

8 · M. Romer

21 · N. Jakobsen

34 · W. Palm

10 · C. Jensen Tue

27 · N. Stolshoj

Our number · vendsyssel ff winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Vendsyssel FF a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vendsyssel ff win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vendsyssel FF win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
HB Koge win	32%	33%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Vendsyssel FF or draw	68%	67%	+1
Vendsyssel FF clean sheet	28%	–	–
HB Koge clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.9 7.3 5.1 2.2 1 8.6 12.3 7.5 3.3 2 6.9 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vendsyssel FF down, HB Koge across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,019 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.42 goals a meeting; 5 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vendsyssel FF at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). HB Koge away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Vendsyssel FF, 1.29 for HB Koge. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.42

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 12

~~Both scored~~6 of 12

~~Last meetings~~VEN 0–1 HBK · HBK 0–0 VEN · VEN 1–1 HBK · HBK 0–2 VEN

Form · last six in 1. Division

VENDSYSSEL FF

LWWLDD0–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2

HB KOGE

LDDDDW0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	10	+10	24
2	Vejle	10	+8	19
3	FC Fredericia	10	+8	17
4	Aalborg	10	0	14
5	Hobro	10	−4	14
6	Aarhus Fremad	10	−1	13
7	AB Copenhagen	10	+3	12
8	Vendsyssel FF	9	−4	10
9	Kolding IF	10	−2	9
10	Hillerød	10	−3	9
11	HB Koge	9	−6	7
12	Esbjerg	10	−9	6