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Kolding IF v Vendsyssel FF

Kolding IF

2–1Full time

Vendsyssel FF

1. Division · FRI 16 OCT · Autocentralen Park

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Kolding IF 2–1 Vendsyssel FF KOLDING IF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolding IF win~~46%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolding IF win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kolding IF was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Kolding IF v Vendsyssel FF
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' M. Doj · Kolding IF
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Kolding IF win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kolding IF win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Kolding IF 0–0 Vendsyssel FF
45′SECOND HALF Kolding IF 0–0 Vendsyssel FF
49′We said Kolding IF at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
53′52′: M. Lynge on the scoresheet for Kolding IF. 0–0 · 32–46–21
53′We published Kolding IF at 46%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kolding IF 1–0 Vendsyssel FF · M. Lynge
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Kolding IF win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Kolding IF win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–41–23 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
56′We published Kolding IF at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kolding IF · On: F. Lesniak · Off: A. Manneh
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vendsyssel FF · On: J. Sommer · Off: M. Hannesbo Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kolding IF · On: V. Morozov · Off: T. Augustinus-Jensen
70′We published Kolding IF at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kolding IF · On: A. Arshad · Off: M. Lynge
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Kolding IF win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vendsyssel FF · On: A. Rise · Off: S. Lodberg
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vendsyssel FF · On: A. N. Atlason · Off: S. Michael
79′We published Kolding IF at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We published Kolding IF at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′We published Kolding IF at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kolding IF 2–0 Vendsyssel FF
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Kolding IF win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′V. Morozov scores for Kolding IF on 85′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vendsyssel FF · On: S. Simpson · Off: M. Holt
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kolding IF · On: J. Hansen · Off: M. Doj
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kolding IF · On: M. Nyassi · Off: D. Johannesson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Vendsyssel FF · On: P. Williams · Off: E. Pedersen
91′90′: A. Rise on the scoresheet for Vendsyssel FF. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Kolding IF 2–1 Vendsyssel FF · A. Rise
FTFULL TIME Kolding IF 2–1 Vendsyssel FF
FTKolding IF 2–1 Vendsyssel FF · Kolding IF win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kolding IF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolding IF 46%, draw 28%, Vendsyssel FF 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Kolding IF v Vendsyssel FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kolding IF win46%

Draw28%

Vendsyssel FF win26%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAutocentralen Park

RefereeJ. Tornberg Rasmussen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolding IF

Vendsyssel FF

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Vendsyssel FF	10	−6	10
10	Kolding IF	10	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kolding if winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

46% The market50%

Us46%

~~Market~~50%

We make Kolding IF a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolding IF v Vendsyssel FF~~1.42 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~10 v 9

~~The market · Kolding IF win~~50% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kolding IF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolding IF win	46%	50%	−4
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Vendsyssel FF win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Kolding IF or draw	74%	76%	−2
Kolding IF clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vendsyssel FF clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.7 8.3 4.5 1 11.9 13.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.8 4.4 3 4.2 4.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolding IF down, Vendsyssel FF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolding IF at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vendsyssel FF away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Kolding IF, 1.01 for Vendsyssel FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KOL 0–0 VEN · VEN 2–1 KOL · VEN 2–4 KOL · KOL 0–0 VEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

KOLDING IF

DWLDDD2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

VENDSYSSEL FF

WWLDDL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	10	+10	24
2	Vejle	10	+8	19
3	FC Fredericia	10	+8	17
4	Aalborg	10	0	14
5	Hobro	10	−4	14
6	Aarhus Fremad	10	−1	13
7	AB Copenhagen	10	+3	12
8	HB Koge	10	−4	10
9	Vendsyssel FF	10	−6	10
10	Kolding IF	10	−2	9
11	Hillerød	10	−3	9
12	Esbjerg	10	−9	6