Hvidovre v Hillerød prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Hvidovre 1–0 Hillerød HVIDOVRE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hvidovre win~~44%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.221

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hvidovre win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hvidovre was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Hvidovre v Hillerød
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' M. Julo · Hillerød
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' S. Opoku · Hillerød
42′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Hvidovre · On: N. Huygevelde · Off: O. Jensen Juul
44′O. Jensen scores for Hvidovre on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Hvidovre 1–0 Hillerød · O. Jensen
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Hvidovre win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
45′We published Hvidovre at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Hvidovre 1–0 Hillerød
46′SECOND HALF Hvidovre 1–0 Hillerød
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hillerød · On: J. Sigurdsson · Off: T. Arndal
62′We published Hvidovre at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' N. Huygevelde · Hvidovre
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hillerød · On: M. Munck · Off: B. Kucukylidiz
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hillerød · On: R. Corlu · Off: H. Sulemana
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hvidovre · On: A. Johansen · Off: D. Bagou
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hvidovre · On: E. Aby · Off: A. Smed
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hvidovre · On: A. Okosun · Off: O. Jensen
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Hvidovre win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
73′We published Hvidovre at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hillerød · On: P. Kallsberg · Off: S. Opoku
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hillerød · On: A. Oppenhagen · Off: M. Julo
80′We published Hvidovre at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hvidovre · On: M. Knudsen · Off: L. Prip
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Hvidovre win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We published Hvidovre at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' M. Kiilerich · Hvidovre
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' W. Glindtvad · Hillerød
FTFULL TIME Hvidovre 1–0 Hillerød
FTHvidovre 1–0 Hillerød · Hvidovre win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hvidovre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hvidovre 44%, draw 27%, Hillerød 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hvidovre v HillerødBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hvidovre win44%

Draw27%

Hillerød win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHvidovre Stadium

RefereeF. Klarlund

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hvidovre

Hillerød

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 10 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hvidovre winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market62%

Us44%

~~Market~~62%

We make Hvidovre a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hvidovre v Hillerød~~1.49 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 9~~1 v 11

~~The market · Hvidovre win~~62% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hvidovre win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hvidovre win	44%	62%	−18
Draw	27%	21%	+6
Hillerød win	29%	17%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	49%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	81%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
Hvidovre or draw	71%	83%	−12
Hvidovre clean sheet	32%	–	–
Hillerød clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 7.6 4.7 1 10.0 12.7 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.0 5.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hvidovre down, Hillerød across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,025 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hvidovre at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hillerød away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Hvidovre, 1.15 for Hillerød. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HIL 2–1 HVI · HVI 1–1 HIL · HIL 1–1 HVI · HVI 3–1 HIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 20 Aug

HVIDOVRE

DWWDWW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

HILLERØD

LWDWDL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	10	+10	24
2	Vejle	11	+9	22
3	FC Fredericia	11	+11	20
4	AB Copenhagen	11	+4	15
5	Aalborg	11	−1	14
6	Aarhus Fremad	11	−1	14
7	Hobro	11	−7	14
8	Kolding IF	11	−1	12
9	HB Koge	11	−5	10
10	Vendsyssel FF	11	−7	10
11	Hillerød	10	−3	9
12	Esbjerg	11	−9	7