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Model 1.2

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Hvidovre v HB Koge

Hvidovre
2–2Full time
HB Koge

1. Division · FRI 23 OCT · Hvidovre Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Hvidovre 2–2 HB Koge HVIDOVRE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hvidovre win54%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.905
The market’s Brier score0.929

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hvidovre win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Hvidovre 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hvidovre v HB Koge
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Hvidovre win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  5. 43′O. Kjaergaard scores for Hvidovre on 43′. 0–0 · 43–37–21
  6. 43′We said Hvidovre at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  7. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Hvidovre 1–0 HB Koge · O. Kjaergaard
  8. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Hvidovre win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
  9. 44′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  10. 45′We said Hvidovre at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Hvidovre 1–0 HB Koge
  12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' HB Koge · On: L. Achton · Off: S. Hald
  13. 55′SECOND HALF Hvidovre 1–0 HB Koge
  14. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hvidovre · On: A. Smed · Off: E. Aby
  15. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Hvidovre win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  16. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' HB Koge · On: E. Semovski · Off: M. Warming
  17. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' HB Koge · On: N. Jakobsen · Off: R. Brodersen
  18. 68′We said Hvidovre at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hvidovre · On: A. Okosun · Off: O. Jensen
  20. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' HB Koge · On: G. Larsen · Off: C. Jensen Tue
  21. 74′73′: D. Bagou on the scoresheet for Hvidovre. 1–0 · 87–11–1
  22. 75′We said Hvidovre at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  23. 75′⚽ GOAL · 73' Hvidovre 2–0 HB Koge · D. Bagou (assist O. Kjaergaard)
  24. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Hvidovre win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HB Koge · On: M. Romer · Off: M. Jensen
  26. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hvidovre · On: A. Johansen · Off: L. Prip
  27. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hvidovre · On: R. Risnaes · Off: D. Bagou
  28. 80′We said Hvidovre at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–1
  29. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Hvidovre 2–1 HB Koge
  30. 81′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  31. 82′E. Semovski scores for HB Koge on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–0
  32. 90′We said Hvidovre at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 5–91–3
  33. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hvidovre 2–2 HB Koge
  34. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Hvidovre win: 54% at kick-off, 5% now
  35. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Hvidovre win 97%)
  36. 91′90′: E. Semovski on the scoresheet for HB Koge, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 5–93–3
  37. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–93–3
  38. 92′We said Hvidovre at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
  39. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Hvidovre win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  40. FTFULL TIME Hvidovre 2–2 HB Koge
  41. FTHvidovre 2–2 HB Koge · Hvidovre win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hvidovre are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hvidovre 54%, draw 25%, HB Koge 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hvidovre v HB KogeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hvidovre win54%
Draw25%
HB Koge win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueHvidovre Stadium

RefereeS. Funder

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hvidovre

HB Koge

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hvidovre11+1127
9HB Koge11−510

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hvidovre winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off
54% The market53%
Us54%
Market53%

We make Hvidovre a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hvidovre v HB Koge1.76 – 1.03
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 AugW5 D1 L0 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 27 v 101 v 9
The market · Hvidovre win53% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:39
Our probability · Hvidovre win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hvidovre win54%53%+1
Draw25%23%+2
HB Koge win22%23%−1
Over 2.5 goals53%62%−9
Both teams to score53%62%−9
Over 1.5 goals77%82%−5
Over 3.5 goals31%41%−10
Hvidovre or draw78%77%+1
Hvidovre clean sheet36%––
HB Koge clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 6.8 5.9 3.3 1 10.3 11.6 5.7 2.0 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 5.5 5.6 2.9 4 2.5 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hvidovre down, HB Koge across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsHBK 0–2 HVI · HVI 3–1 HBK · HBK 0–2 HVI · HVI 3–3 HBK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

HVIDOVRE

WWDWWW2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

HB KOGE

DDDWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 5–2 · 2–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hvidovre11+1127
2Vejle11+922
3FC Fredericia11+1120
4AB Copenhagen11+415
5Aalborg11−114
6Aarhus Fremad11−114
7Hobro11−714
8Kolding IF11−112
9HB Koge11−510
10Vendsyssel FF11−710
11Hillerød11−49
12Esbjerg11−97

The competition's standings before kick-off.