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Model 1.2

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Hobro v Vendsyssel FF

Hobro
2–2Full time
Vendsyssel FF

1. Division · FRI 23 OCT · DS Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31
Hobro 2–2 Vendsyssel FF HOBRO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hobro win41%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.795
The market’s Brier score0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hobro win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hobro was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hobro v Vendsyssel FF
  4. 17′We said Hobro at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–61
  5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Hobro 0–1 Vendsyssel FF
  6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Hobro win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
  7. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Vendsyssel FF win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Hobro win 39%)
  8. 18′R. Schuller scores for Vendsyssel FF on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–61
  9. 19′R. Schuller scores for Vendsyssel FF on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–62
  10. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' R. Schuller · Vendsyssel FF
  11. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' T. Hansen · Hobro
  12. 26′We said Hobro at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
  14. 34′34′: A. C. Vendelbo on the scoresheet for Vendsyssel FF, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  15. 34′We said Hobro at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  16. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Hobro 0–2 Vendsyssel FF · A. C. Vendelbo (penalty)
  17. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Hobro win: 41% at kick-off, 3% now
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Hobro 0–2 Vendsyssel FF
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Hobro 0–2 Vendsyssel FF
  20. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' O. Dorph · Hobro
  21. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hobro · On: M. Huldahl · Off: R. Hauge
  22. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Hobro win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hobro · On: O. Meedom · Off: M. Pedersen
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Hobro · On: M. Kannegaard · Off: C. Enemark
  25. 64′Hobro pull one back on 64′ through F. Christensen. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
  26. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Hobro 1–2 Vendsyssel FF · F. Christensen
  27. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Hobro win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
  28. 65′Hobro pull one back on 63′ through F. Christensen. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  29. 65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  30. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vendsyssel FF · On: A. N. Atlason · Off: S. Lodberg
  31. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vendsyssel FF · On: B. Konteh · Off: M. Hannesbo
  32. 70′O. Meedom scores for Hobro on 70′. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  33. 70′We said Hobro at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 2–2 · 21–61–18
  34. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Hobro 2–2 Vendsyssel FF · O. Meedom
  35. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Hobro win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  36. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Vendsyssel FF win 79%)
  37. 71′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 20–62–17
  38. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' S. Michael · Vendsyssel FF
  39. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hobro · On: Z. Hyltoft · Off: A. Breum
  40. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vendsyssel FF · On: F. Mortensen · Off: M. Holt
  41. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vendsyssel FF · On: E. Pedersen · Off: S. Michael
  42. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hobro win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  43. 83′We said Hobro at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
  44. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Vendsyssel FF · On: A. Rise · Off: A. N. Atlason
  45. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' A. C. Vendelbo · Vendsyssel FF
  46. FTFULL TIME Hobro 2–2 Vendsyssel FF
  47. FTHobro 2–2 Vendsyssel FF · Hobro win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hobro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hobro 41%, draw 27%, Vendsyssel FF 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hobro v Vendsyssel FFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hobro win41%
Draw27%
Vendsyssel FF win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueDS Arena

RefereeN. Lindby

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hobro

Vendsyssel FF

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Hobro11−714
10Vendsyssel FF11−710

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hobro winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
41% The market38%
Us41%
Market38%

We make Hobro a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hobro v Vendsyssel FF1.39 – 1.20
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 AugW0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 14 v 107 v 10
The market · Hobro win38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:40
Our probability · Hobro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hobro win41%38%+3
Draw27%27%0
Vendsyssel FF win32%35%−3
Over 2.5 goals48%51%−3
Both teams to score53%56%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%74%0
Over 3.5 goals26%30%−4
Hobro or draw68%65%+3
Hobro clean sheet30%––
Vendsyssel FF clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 8.2 8.4 5.4 2.2 1 9.8 12.9 7.4 3.0 2 7.2 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hobro down, Vendsyssel FF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsHOB 0–4 VEN · VEN 1–2 HOB · VEN 2–0 HOB · HOB 3–1 VEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

HOBRO

LLDLDL1–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 0–3

VENDSYSSEL FF

WLDDLL2–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hvidovre11+1127
2Vejle11+922
3FC Fredericia11+1120
4AB Copenhagen11+415
5Aalborg11−114
6Aarhus Fremad11−114
7Hobro11−714
8Kolding IF11−112
9HB Koge11−510
10Vendsyssel FF11−710
11Hillerød11−49
12Esbjerg11−97

The competition's standings before kick-off.