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Hobro v Kolding IF

Hobro

1–1Full time

Kolding IF

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT · DS Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Hobro 1–1 Kolding IF KOLDING IF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kolding IF win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.758

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolding IF win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Hobro v Kolding IF
2′Much as we predicted: Kolding IF was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
3′Much as we predicted: Kolding IF was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hobro 0–1 Kolding IF · F. Lesniak
16′F. Lesniak scores for Kolding IF on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
16′⚽ GOAL · 14' Hobro 0–1 Kolding IF · F. Lesniak
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
18′F. Lesniak scores for Kolding IF on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
19′We published Kolding IF at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
21′We published Kolding IF at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
30′We published Kolding IF at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' L. Laursen · Kolding IF
45′HALF-TIME Hobro 0–1 Kolding IF
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Kolding IF win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kolding IF · On: M. Doj · Off: A. Norager
46′SECOND HALF Hobro 0–1 Kolding IF
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kolding IF · On: M. Lynge · Off: T. Augustinus-Jensen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kolding IF · On: I. Niare · Off: S. Yateke
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hobro · On: M. Jacobsen · Off: O. Dorph
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hobro · On: O. Meedom · Off: A. Noshe
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kolding IF · On: M. Soomets · Off: A. Manneh
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' L. Laursen · Kolding IF
78′🟥 RED CARD · 77' L. Laursen · Kolding IF
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' L. Laursen · Kolding IF
79′🟥 RED CARD · 77' L. Laursen · Kolding IF
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kolding IF · On: J. Hansen · Off: D. Johannesson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hobro · On: O. Obasi · Off: M. Pedersen
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' F. Christensen · Hobro
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' M. Doj · Kolding IF
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hobro · On: A. Breum · Off: R. Hauge
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Hobro 1–1 Kolding IF · F. Christensen
FTFULL TIME Hobro 1–1 Kolding IF
FTHobro 1–1 Kolding IF · Kolding IF win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hobro win33%

Draw29%

Kolding IF win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · DS Arena

Referee · M. Thomsen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hobro

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Dakir

20 A. Noshe

3 C. Enemark

4 O. Dorph

18 E. Sogaard

27 L. Klitten

22 M. Huldahl

26 T. Hansen

8 M. Pedersen

11 R. Hauge

9 F. Christensen

Coach · Jens Gjesing

Substitutes

1 · A. Sondergaard

5 · M. Kannegaard

12 · M. Jacobsen

2 · M. Londal

14 · L. Hansen

43 · A. Breum

29 · O. Obasi

16 · O. Meedom

47 · P. Flak

Kolding IF

Formation not confirmed

28 A. Danko

20 D. Johannesson

8 A. Halsgaard

2 L. Laursen

3 A. Norager

19 H. Hollsberg

4 F. Lesniak

34 A. Manneh

7 T. Augustinus-Jensen

22 I. Tannander

17 S. Yateke

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · K. Shushman

24 · M. Soomets

5 · G. Friberg

29 · J. Hansen

21 · M. Doj

6 · M. Lynge

42 · P. Thome

18 · V. Morozov

26 · I. Niare

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hobro

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Dakir

20 A. Noshe

3 C. Enemark

4 O. Dorph

18 E. Sogaard

27 L. Klitten

22 M. Huldahl

26 T. Hansen

8 M. Pedersen

11 R. Hauge

9 F. Christensen

Coach · Jens Gjesing

Substitutes

1 · A. Sondergaard

5 · M. Kannegaard

12 · M. Jacobsen

2 · M. Londal

14 · L. Hansen

43 · A. Breum

29 · O. Obasi

16 · O. Meedom

47 · P. Flak

Kolding IF

Formation not confirmed

28 A. Danko

20 D. Johannesson

8 A. Halsgaard

2 L. Laursen

3 A. Norager

19 H. Hollsberg

4 F. Lesniak

34 A. Manneh

7 T. Augustinus-Jensen

22 I. Tannander

17 S. Yateke

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · K. Shushman

24 · M. Soomets

5 · G. Friberg

29 · J. Hansen

21 · M. Doj

6 · M. Lynge

42 · P. Thome

18 · V. Morozov

26 · I. Niare

Our number · kolding if winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Kolding IF a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kolding if win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hobro win	33%	34%	−1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Kolding IF win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	48%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Hobro or draw	62%	63%	−1
Hobro clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kolding IF clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.0 10.8 7.1 2.9 1 9.9 13.6 8.0 3.3 2 6.0 7.4 4.6 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hobro down, Kolding IF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 1. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hobro at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kolding IF away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Hobro, 1.24 for Kolding IF. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KOL 2–1 HOB · HOB 2–2 KOL · KOL 1–0 HOB · HOB 1–0 KOL

Form · last six in 1. Division

HOBRO

WWLLDL2–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–5

KOLDING IF

LDWLDD2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	10	+10	24
2	Vejle	10	+8	19
3	FC Fredericia	9	+6	14
4	Aalborg	9	0	13
5	Aarhus Fremad	10	−1	13
6	Hobro	9	−4	13
7	AB Copenhagen	10	+3	12
8	Vendsyssel FF	9	−4	10
9	Hillerød	9	−1	9
10	Kolding IF	9	−2	8
11	HB Koge	9	−6	7
12	Esbjerg	9	−9	5