Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1
Back

Home › Football › 1. Division › Hillerød v FC Fredericia

Denmark flag

Hillerød v FC Fredericia

Hillerød
0–2Full time
FC Fredericia

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT · Helsingor Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35
Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia FC FREDERICIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Fredericia win42%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.505
The market’s Brier score0.194

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Fredericia win at 42%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Hillerød v FC Fredericia
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: FC Fredericia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
  4. 16′FC Fredericia ahead on 15′ through F. Rieper. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Hillerød 0–1 FC Fredericia · F. Rieper
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' FC Fredericia win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
  7. 18′We said FC Fredericia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–19–69
  8. 21′We said FC Fredericia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  9. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–71
  10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' FC Fredericia win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  11. 45′A. Bondergaard scores for FC Fredericia on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  12. 45′We said FC Fredericia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  13. 45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia · A. Bondergaard
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia
  15. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Fredericia win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia
  17. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hillerød · On: J. Sigurdsson · Off: F. Hogh Jensen
  18. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hillerød · On: N. Schmidt · Off: M. Mouritz
  19. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hillerød · On: H. Sulemana · Off: R. Corlu
  20. 54′We said FC Fredericia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
  21. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' N. Schmidt · Hillerød
  22. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Hillerød · On: M. Munck · Off: S. Opoku
  23. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Fredericia · On: C. Jorgensen · Off: B. Bang-Kittilsen
  24. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' O. Lauritsen · Hillerød
  25. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Fredericia · On: A. Dahl · Off: W. Madsen
  26. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Fredericia · On: E. Hansborg · Off: J. Lindekilde
  27. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Fredericia · On: A. Pyndt · Off: A. Nygaard
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hillerød · On: W. Glindtvad · Off: S. Larsen
  29. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' D. Haarbo · FC Fredericia
  30. 85′We said FC Fredericia at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Fredericia · On: N. Thomsen · Off: A. Bondergaard
  32. FTFULL TIME Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia
  33. FTHillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia · FC Fredericia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hillerød win31%
Draw27%
FC Fredericia win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Helsingor Stadion

Referee · P. Gammelholm

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hillerød

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Dithmer

13 S. Larsen

18 O. Lauritsen

7 J. Witt

17 M. Julo

20 B. Kucukylidiz

11 M. Mouritz

19 R. Corlu

8 T. Arndal

14 S. Opoku

24 F. Hogh Jensen

Coach · Christian Lonstrup

Substitutes

30 · A. Mortensen

25 · W. Glindtvad

3 · A. Oppenhagen

21 · K. Enghardt

12 · N. Schmidt

47 · M. Munck

10 · P. Kallsberg

23 · J. Sigurdsson

27 · H. Sulemana

FC Fredericia

Formation not confirmed

90 V. Birkso

12 S. Crone

3 A. Nygaard

5 F. Rieper

16 L. Dauerhoj

20 D. Haarbo

13 W. Madsen

8 B. Bang-Kittilsen

10 E. Simonsen

23 J. Lindekilde

19 A. Bondergaard

Coach · Michael Hansen

Substitutes

44 · C. Risom

14 · A. Dahl

15 · M. Ladefoged

22 · F. Bunten

18 · A. Pyndt

24 · C. Jorgensen

9 · P. Egelund

11 · E. Hansborg

17 · N. Thomsen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hillerød

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Dithmer

13 S. Larsen

18 O. Lauritsen

7 J. Witt

17 M. Julo

20 B. Kucukylidiz

11 M. Mouritz

19 R. Corlu

8 T. Arndal

14 S. Opoku

24 F. Hogh Jensen

Coach · Christian Lonstrup

Substitutes

30 · A. Mortensen

25 · W. Glindtvad

3 · A. Oppenhagen

21 · K. Enghardt

12 · N. Schmidt

47 · M. Munck

10 · P. Kallsberg

23 · J. Sigurdsson

27 · H. Sulemana

FC Fredericia

Formation not confirmed

90 V. Birkso

12 S. Crone

3 A. Nygaard

5 F. Rieper

16 L. Dauerhoj

20 D. Haarbo

13 W. Madsen

8 B. Bang-Kittilsen

10 E. Simonsen

23 J. Lindekilde

19 A. Bondergaard

Coach · Michael Hansen

Substitutes

44 · C. Risom

14 · A. Dahl

15 · M. Ladefoged

22 · F. Bunten

18 · A. Pyndt

24 · C. Jorgensen

9 · P. Egelund

11 · E. Hansborg

17 · N. Thomsen

Our number · fc fredericia winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
42% The market64%
Us42%
Market64%

We make FC Fredericia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 09:09
Our probability · fc fredericia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hillerød win31%16%+15
Draw27%20%+7
FC Fredericia win42%64%−22
Over 2.5 goals51%65%−14
Both teams to score55%59%−4
Over 1.5 goals76%83%−7
Over 3.5 goals29%44%−14
Hillerød or draw58%36%+22
Hillerød clean sheet23%––
FC Fredericia clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.3 9.1 7.1 3.6 1 7.6 12.5 8.8 4.4 2 5.1 7.4 5.5 2.7 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hillerød down, FC Fredericia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsFCF 0–2 HIL · HIL 0–3 FCF · HIL 1–1 FCF · FCF 3–2 HIL

Form · last six in 1. Division

HILLERØD

DLWDWD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

FC FREDERICIA

WDLWDD3–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hvidovre10+1024
2Vejle10+819
3FC Fredericia9+614
4Aalborg9013
5Aarhus Fremad10−113
6Hobro9−413
7AB Copenhagen10+312
8Vendsyssel FF9−410
9Hillerød9−19
10Kolding IF9−28
11HB Koge9−67
12Esbjerg9−95

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.