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HB Koge v AB Copenhagen

HB Koge

2–3Full time

AB Copenhagen

1. Division · FRI 16 OCT · Capelli Sport Stadion

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

HB Koge 2–3 AB Copenhagen AB COPENHAGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AB Copenhagen win~~44%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.470

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AB Copenhagen win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AB Copenhagen 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
1′KICK-OFF HB Koge v AB Copenhagen
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' R. Brodersen · HB Koge
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' M. Jakobsen · HB Koge
45′We said AB Copenhagen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
45′HALF-TIME HB Koge 0–1 AB Copenhagen
46′SECOND HALF HB Koge 0–1 AB Copenhagen
48′45′: M. Rasmussen on the scoresheet for AB Copenhagen, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
48′HB Koge level it on 47′ through M. Warming. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–40–35
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was AB Copenhagen win 35%)
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' HB Koge 0–1 AB Copenhagen · M. Rasmussen
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' AB Copenhagen win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' AB Copenhagen win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' HB Koge · On: M. Warming · Off: G. Culhaci
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' HB Koge 1–1 AB Copenhagen · M. Warming
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' AB Copenhagen win: 44% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was AB Copenhagen win 35%)
49′We said AB Copenhagen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' AB Copenhagen win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
54′We said AB Copenhagen at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 24–44–32
59′O. Mullings scores for AB Copenhagen on 59′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–78
59′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–18–78
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' HB Koge 1–2 AB Copenhagen · O. Mullings
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' AB Copenhagen win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' AB Copenhagen win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' M. Rasmussen · AB Copenhagen
65′We said AB Copenhagen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AB Copenhagen · On: N. Engell · Off: M. Rasmussen
69′68′: N. Engell on the scoresheet for AB Copenhagen, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
69′We said AB Copenhagen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' HB Koge 1–3 AB Copenhagen · N. Engell
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' AB Copenhagen win: 44% at kick-off, 98% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AB Copenhagen · On: M. Clement · Off: M. Vesterholm
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AB Copenhagen · On: T. Damtoft · Off: M. Stenner
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HB Koge · On: N. Jakobsen · Off: R. Brodersen
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HB Koge · On: C. Jensen Tue · Off: G. Larsen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HB Koge · On: L. Achton · Off: S. Hald
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' M. Clement · AB Copenhagen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AB Copenhagen · On: M. Ramkilde · Off: A. Liu
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AB Copenhagen · On: F. Lindgaard · Off: O. Mullings
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' S. Diop · AB Copenhagen
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' C. Jensen Tue · HB Koge
82′We said AB Copenhagen at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' T. Thomsen · HB Koge
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' HB Koge · On: E. Semovski · Off: T. Thomsen
90′HB Koge pull one back on 89′ through C. Jensen Tue. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
90′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–4–96
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' HB Koge 2–3 AB Copenhagen · C. Jensen Tue
FTFULL TIME HB Koge 2–3 AB Copenhagen
FTHB Koge 2–3 AB Copenhagen · AB Copenhagen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AB Copenhagen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HB Koge 30%, draw 26%, AB Copenhagen 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on HB Koge v AB CopenhagenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

HB Koge win30%

Draw26%

AB Copenhagen win44%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCapelli Sport Stadion

RefereeO. A. Stegemuller Fogh Simbold

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HB Koge

AB Copenhagen

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish 1. Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	AB Copenhagen	10	+3	12
8	HB Koge	10	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ab copenhagen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

44% The market34%

Us44%

~~Market~~34%

We make AB Copenhagen a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HB Koge v AB Copenhagen~~1.22 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~8 v 7

~~The market · AB Copenhagen win~~34% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AB Copenhagen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HB Koge win	30%	41%	−11
Draw	26%	25%	+1
AB Copenhagen win	44%	34%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
HB Koge or draw	56%	66%	−10
HB Koge clean sheet	22%	–	–
AB Copenhagen clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 9.1 7.5 3.9 1 7.2 12.3 8.9 4.6 2 4.7 7.1 5.4 2.8 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HB Koge down, AB Copenhagen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

HB Koge at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). AB Copenhagen away: 1.20 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for HB Koge, 1.54 for AB Copenhagen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 22 Aug

HB KOGE

DDDDWW2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 5–2 · 2–0

AB COPENHAGEN

DLLLWW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hvidovre	10	+10	24
2	Vejle	10	+8	19
3	FC Fredericia	10	+8	17
4	Aalborg	10	0	14
5	Hobro	10	−4	14
6	Aarhus Fremad	10	−1	13
7	AB Copenhagen	10	+3	12
8	HB Koge	10	−4	10
9	Vendsyssel FF	10	−6	10
10	Kolding IF	10	−2	9
11	Hillerød	10	−3	9
12	Esbjerg	10	−9	6